← 2. Bundesliga 2024-25 · Sun, Apr 13, 11:30 AM UTC · ref: R. Kampka
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| SC Paderborn 07 win | 58% | 1.65 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.16 |
| Fortuna Dusseldorf win | 19% | 5.27 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| SC Paderborn 07 −0.75 | 54% | 1.83 |
| Fortuna Dusseldorf −0.75 | 46% | 2.08 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Over | 60% | 1.61 |
| Under | 40% | 2.40 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 23 | Shots | 8 |
| 7 | On target | 4 |
| 4 | Corners | 2 |
| 12 | Fouls | 7 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand