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Kaiserslautern 1–2 Nurnberg

← 2. Bundesliga 2024-25 · Sat, Apr 12, 06:30 PM UTC · ref: R. Schröder

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Kaiserslautern win54%1.79
Draw24%4.16
Nurnberg win23%4.23

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Nurnberg −0.7552%1.88
Kaiserslautern −0.7548%2.02

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over60%1.60
Under40%2.45

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

14'⚽Fabio Gruber · Nurnberg
54'🟨Jens Castrop · Nurnberg
68'⚽Mahir Emreli · Nurnberg
70'🟨Mahir Emreli · Nurnberg
72'⚽ (pen)Marlon Ritter · Kaiserslautern
83'🟨Lukas Schleimer · Nurnberg
87'🟨Jan Reichert · Nurnberg
90'🟨Maximilian Bauer · Kaiserslautern
90'🟨Filip Kaloč · Kaiserslautern
90'🟨Janni Serra · Nurnberg

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1
25Shots5
12On target3
12Corners2
14Fouls12
2Yellow cards5
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricKaiserslauternNurnberg
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.350.44
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.340.49
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.390.40
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.10
box share (last 5)0.550.77
cards avg (last 5)1.802.80
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueFritz-Walter-Stadion
coach days
11.00
315.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.140.15
corner diff avg (last 5)2.20-0.40
corners against avg (last 5)3.604.60
corners for avg (last 5)5.804.20
corners volatility (last 10)1.972.85
defensive leak (last 5)0.180.11
dominance (last 5)0.570.43
elo1484.851431.22
elo momentum (last 5)-11.08-10.74
eye test v10.69-0.07
eye trend v1-0.17-0.15
first sub minute (last 10)65.0058.90
form points (last 5)5.006.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.40-0.20
goals against avg (last 5)2.001.40
goals for avg (last 5)1.601.20
goals volatility (last 10)1.261.26
h2 goals (last 10)1.200.50
h2h win rate (last 5)0.600.40
ht lead rate (last 20)0.350.30
keeper form v1—0.66
league points47.0041.00
league rank7.0011.00
matches since blank0.000.00
matches since clean sheet5.002.00
matches since win1.002.00
pass acc avg (last 5)78.6083.80
possession avg (last 5)52.0052.80
rest days6.297.31
scorer concentration0.360.29
season ppg1.571.41
shot diff avg (last 5)3.20-4.40
shots for avg (last 5)14.8010.20
skill v10.240.76
sot against avg (last 5)5.204.20
sot for avg (last 10)5.204.40
sot for avg (last 3)4.674.00
sot for avg (last 5)5.803.80
state index-0.15-0.42
sterile dominance v1-0.130.80
threat rate (last 10)0.290.23
threat rate (last 3)0.290.18
threat rate (last 5)0.280.20
venue ppg (last 5)1.801.40