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Hertha 1–1 Darmstadt

← 2. Bundesliga 2024-25 · Sat, Apr 12, 11:00 AM UTC · ref: T. Gansloweit

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Hertha win46%2.08
Darmstadt win28%3.52
Draw26%3.74

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Darmstadt −0.554%1.83
Hertha −0.546%2.08

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over57%1.69
Under43%2.26

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

25'🟨Killian Corredor · Darmstadt
31'🟨Philipp Förster · Darmstadt
48'⚽Isac Lidberg · Darmstadt
62'⚽ (og)Aleksandar Vukotić · Hertha
71'🟨Diego Demme · Hertha
78'🟨Clemens Riedel · Darmstadt
90'🟨Ibrahim Maza · Hertha

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
8Shots12
1On target4
6Corners5
13Fouls11
2Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricHerthaDarmstadt
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.330.31
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.460.40
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.430.43
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.05
box share (last 5)0.740.73
cards avg (last 5)2.001.80
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueOlympiastadion Berlin
coach days
70.00
223.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.140.09
corner diff avg (last 5)-1.40-2.00
corners against avg (last 5)5.605.80
corners for avg (last 5)4.203.80
corners volatility (last 10)2.571.55
defensive leak (last 5)0.150.10
dominance (last 5)0.520.58
elo1442.271429.52
elo momentum (last 5)17.882.49
eye test v10.581.18
eye trend v10.580.21
first sub minute (last 10)62.1058.60
form points (last 5)9.006.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.40-0.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.601.60
goals for avg (last 5)2.001.40
goals volatility (last 10)1.660.99
h2 goals (last 10)0.800.40
h2h win rate (last 5)0.600.40
ht lead rate (last 20)0.250.30
keeper form v10.590.70
league points35.0034.00
league rank14.0015.00
matches since blank4.006.00
matches since clean sheet0.000.00
matches since win0.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)78.2079.20
possession avg (last 5)44.0047.40
rest days6.697.00
scorer concentration0.200.30
season ppg1.171.13
shot diff avg (last 5)1.403.80
shots for avg (last 5)13.4016.00
skill v1-0.31-0.00
sot against avg (last 5)3.404.60
sot for avg (last 10)4.404.60
sot for avg (last 3)6.335.33
sot for avg (last 5)5.406.80
squad age25.08—
state index-0.08-0.30
sterile dominance v1-0.66-0.71
threat rate (last 10)0.280.29
threat rate (last 3)0.340.29
threat rate (last 5)0.300.33
venue ppg (last 5)0.800.00