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Hamburger SV 2–4 Braunschweig

← 2. Bundesliga 2024-25 · Fri, Apr 11, 04:30 PM UTC · ref: F. Brych

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Hamburger SV win68%1.39
Draw19%5.36
Braunschweig win13%7.84

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Braunschweig −1.553%1.84
Hamburger SV −1.547%2.06

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over68%1.41
Under32%3.03

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

40'⚽Leon Bell Bell · Braunschweig
41'⚽ (og)Silvan Hefti · Braunschweig
44'🟨Sven Köhler · Braunschweig
48'🟨Robin Krausse · Braunschweig
57'🟨Paul Jaeckel · Braunschweig
60'🟨Daniel Elfadli · Hamburger SV
69'🟨Łukasz Poręba · Hamburger SV
74'🟨Lino Tempelmann · Braunschweig
74'⚽Davie Selke · Hamburger SV
84'⚽Julian Baas · Braunschweig
85'⚽Rayan Philippe · Braunschweig

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score2
11Shots16
5On target5
5Corners4
15Fouls7
3Yellow cards4
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricHamburger SVBraunschweig
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.390.37
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.320.31
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.350.32
blown lead rate (last 20)0.200.05
box share (last 5)0.690.55
cards avg (last 5)1.001.60
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueVolksparkstadion
88'🟨Immanuel Pherai · Hamburger SV
90'⚽Davie Selke · Hamburger SV
coach days
161.00
527.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d3.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.110.12
corner diff avg (last 5)2.601.00
corners against avg (last 5)4.204.00
corners for avg (last 5)6.805.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.393.20
defensive leak (last 5)0.050.14
dominance (last 5)0.580.46
elo1606.281361.51
elo momentum (last 5)34.283.34
eye test v10.99-0.19
eye trend v1-0.16-0.23
first sub minute (last 10)60.5051.30
form points (last 5)11.006.00
goal diff avg (last 5)1.80-0.60
goals against avg (last 5)0.202.00
goals for avg (last 5)2.001.40
goals volatility (last 10)1.480.79
h2 goals (last 10)1.100.80
h2h win rate (last 5)0.800.20
ht lead rate (last 20)0.550.15
keeper form v10.740.66
league points53.0027.00
league rank2.0017.00
matches since blank1.005.00
matches since clean sheet0.006.00
matches since win0.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)87.6077.60
possession avg (last 5)56.8052.00
rest days6.237.00
scorer concentration0.260.33
season ppg1.770.93
shot diff avg (last 5)4.60-2.00
shots for avg (last 5)17.2012.80
skill v11.360.14
sot against avg (last 5)2.805.20
sot for avg (last 10)6.004.20
sot for avg (last 3)5.673.33
sot for avg (last 5)6.003.80
state index0.89-0.51
sterile dominance v10.330.15
threat rate (last 10)0.270.24
threat rate (last 3)0.330.23
threat rate (last 5)0.300.24
venue ppg (last 5)1.801.20