← 2. Bundesliga 2024-25 · Sun, Apr 6, 11:30 AM UTC · ref: M. Bacher
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Magdeburg win | 55% | 47% | 1.75 | fair |
| Kaiserslautern win | 24% | 30% | 4.15 | value: +24% |
| Draw | 21% | 23% | 4.50 | value: +5% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Kaiserslautern −0.75 | 50% | 1.94 |
| Magdeburg −0.75 | 50% | 1.94 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Over | 67% | 1.43 |
| Under | 33% | 2.96 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 7 | Shots | 17 |
| 4 | On target | 2 |
| 3 | Corners | 5 |
| 18 | Fouls | 13 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand