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Braunschweig 3–2 SC Paderborn 07

← 2. Bundesliga 2024-25 · Fri, Apr 4, 04:30 PM UTC · ref: P. Schwengers

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
SC Paderborn 07 win53%1.83
Draw25%3.81
Braunschweig win22%4.41

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Braunschweig +0.7553%1.82
SC Paderborn 07 +0.7547%2.08

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over56%1.72
Under44%2.20

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

25'⚽Filip Bilbija · SC Paderborn 07
30'🟨Jannis Nikolaou · Braunschweig
37'🟨Marcel Hoffmeier · SC Paderborn 07
44'⚽Richmond Tachie · Braunschweig
47'⚽Adriano Grimaldi · SC Paderborn 07
71'⚽Rayan Philippe · Braunschweig
72'🟨Filip Bilbija · SC Paderborn 07
78'⚽Leon Bell Bell · Braunschweig

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score1
10Shots20
5On target6
0Corners4
9Fouls9
1Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricBraunschweigSC Paderborn 07
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.340.37
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.330.39
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.270.37
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.00
box share (last 5)0.550.69
cards avg (last 5)2.002.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEintracht-Stadion
coach days
520.00
1373.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.060.13
corner diff avg (last 5)2.202.80
corners against avg (last 5)3.804.20
corners for avg (last 5)6.007.00
corners volatility (last 10)3.202.31
defensive leak (last 5)0.150.09
dominance (last 5)0.450.59
elo1347.871540.65
elo momentum (last 5)-23.579.35
eye test v1-0.470.85
eye trend v10.050.00
first sub minute (last 10)51.4047.40
form points (last 5)3.008.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-1.400.60
goals against avg (last 5)2.201.20
goals for avg (last 5)0.801.80
goals volatility (last 10)0.571.35
h2 goals (last 10)0.601.00
h2h win rate (last 5)0.400.60
ht lead rate (last 20)0.200.20
keeper form v10.630.65
league points24.0048.00
league rank18.003.00
matches since blank4.002.00
matches since clean sheet5.002.00
matches since win5.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)79.2081.00
possession avg (last 5)53.8052.20
rest days5.216.19
scorer concentration0.330.18
season ppg0.861.71
shot diff avg (last 5)-2.204.20
shots for avg (last 5)12.4016.00
skill v10.410.47
sot against avg (last 5)5.403.40
sot for avg (last 10)3.805.40
sot for avg (last 3)4.006.00
sot for avg (last 5)3.205.80
state index-1.070.37
sterile dominance v10.44-0.28
threat rate (last 10)0.230.30
threat rate (last 3)0.230.32
threat rate (last 5)0.230.32
venue ppg (last 5)1.001.80