← 2. Bundesliga 2024-25 · Sat, Mar 29, 12:00 PM UTC · ref: P. Alt
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hertha win | 57% | 38% | 1.68 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 22% | 4.00 | fair |
| Karlsruhe win | 19% | 40% | 5.35 | value: +114% ⚠ |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Hertha −0.75 | 52% | 1.86 |
| Karlsruhe −0.75 | 48% | 2.04 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 55% | 1.74 |
| Under | 45% | 2.16 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 16' | ⚽ | Fabian Reese · Hertha |
| 28' | 🟨 | Derry Scherhant · Hertha |
| 30' | 🟨 | Marcel Franke · Karlsruhe |
| 34' | 🟨 | Marcel Beifus · Karlsruhe |
| 37' | 🟨 | Christoph Kobald · Karlsruhe |
| 39' | 🟨 | Nicolai Rapp · Karlsruhe |
| 47' | ⚽ | Fabian Reese · Hertha |
| 51' | 🟨 | Robin Heußer · Karlsruhe |
| 55' | ⚽ (pen) | Marvin Wanitzek · Karlsruhe |
| 58' | 🟨 | Diego Demme · Hertha |
| 63' |
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 12 |
| 4 | On target | 2 |
| 4 | Corners | 5 |
| 7 | Fouls | 12 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Hertha | Karlsruhe |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.54 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.77 | 0.69 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| venue | Olympiastadion Berlin |
| 🟨 |
| Márton Dárdai · Hertha |
| 89' | ⚽ | Jan Luca Schuler · Hertha |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 56.00 | 1883.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.64 | 2.51 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.37 |
| elo | 1445.84 | 1519.73 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -15.58 | -7.82 |
| eye test v1 | 0.49 | -0.44 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.58 | -0.37 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.50 | 57.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.60 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.51 | — |
| league points | 29.00 | 41.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.00 | 79.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.40 | 46.60 |
| rest days | 12.98 | 12.98 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 1.04 | 1.46 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 5.40 | -6.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.60 | 10.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.23 | 0.01 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.20 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.33 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 25.08 | 26.90 |
| state index | -0.49 | -0.32 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.20 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.40 |