← 2. Bundesliga 2024-25 · Sat, Mar 15, 12:00 PM UTC · ref: W. Haslberger
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SC Paderborn 07 win | 55% | 48% | 1.75 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 24% | 4.05 | fair |
| Kaiserslautern win | 20% | 29% | 4.75 | value: +36% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Kaiserslautern −0.75 | 50% | 1.93 |
| SC Paderborn 07 −0.75 | 50% | 1.95 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 58% | 1.65 |
| Under | 42% | 2.34 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2' | ⚽ | Aaron Zehnter · SC Paderborn 07 |
| 8' | ⚽ (pen) | Raphael Obermair · SC Paderborn 07 |
| 15' | ⚽ | Filip Bilbija · SC Paderborn 07 |
| 36' | 🟨 | Ilyas Ansah · SC Paderborn 07 |
| 45' | ⚽ (pen) | Daniel Hanslik · Kaiserslautern |
| 45' | ⚽ | Ragnar Ache · Kaiserslautern |
| 50' | 🟨 | Laurin Curda · SC Paderborn 07 |
| 55' | 🟨 | Tim Breithaupt · Kaiserslautern |
| 61' | ⚽ | Ragnar Ache · Kaiserslautern |
| 72' | ⚽ | Adriano Grimaldi · SC Paderborn 07 |
| 3 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 12 | Shots | 14 |
| 7 | On target | 5 |
| 4 | Corners | 5 |
| 16 | Fouls | 12 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SC Paderborn 07 | Kaiserslautern |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.55 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 |
| venue | Home Deluxe Arena |
| 84' | 🟨 | Adriano Grimaldi · SC Paderborn 07 |
| 89' | 🟨 | Julian Krahl · Kaiserslautern |
| 90' | ⚽ | Aaron Zehnter · SC Paderborn 07 |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1.60 |
| coach days | 1353.00 | 257.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 4.80 | -1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 6.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.80 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.05 | 2.58 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.03 | 0.05 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.46 |
| elo | 1575.00 | 1526.31 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 32.49 | -10.15 |
| eye test v1 | 0.35 | 0.54 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.34 | 0.00 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 47.90 | 63.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.63 | 1.35 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.81 |
| league points | 45.00 | 44.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.60 | 78.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 54.20 | 48.40 |
| rest days | 5.98 | 7.77 |
| scorer concentration | 0.18 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 1.73 | 1.63 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 5.00 | -2.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.80 | 14.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.50 | -0.01 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.40 | 5.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.40 |
| squad age | 25.95 | 26.70 |
| state index | 0.67 | -0.06 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.21 | -0.46 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |