← 2. Bundesliga 2024-25 · Sat, Mar 15, 12:00 PM UTC · ref: N. Winter
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Fortuna Dusseldorf win | 58% | 1.65 |
| Draw | 22% | 4.50 |
| Regensburg win | 20% | 5.04 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Regensburg −1 | 54% | 1.78 |
| Fortuna Dusseldorf −1 | 46% | 2.13 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 55% | 1.75 |
| Under | 45% | 2.17 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 29' | 🟨 | Dawid Kownacki · Fortuna Dusseldorf |
| 41' | ⚽ | Matthias Zimmermann · Fortuna Dusseldorf |
| 72' | 🟨 | Louis Breunig · Regensburg |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 17 | Shots | 10 |
| 8 | On target | 0 |
| 5 | Corners | 4 |
| 14 | Fouls | 17 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Fortuna Dusseldorf | Regensburg |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.23 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.18 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.20 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.71 | 0.68 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.80 |
| venue | Merkur Spiel-Arena |
| coach days |
| 1138.00 |
| 165.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.03 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.60 | -2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 7.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.03 | 2.85 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.41 |
| elo | 1518.67 | 1296.20 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -19.58 | -8.91 |
| eye test v1 | -0.77 | -1.04 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.31 | -0.11 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.20 | 58.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.63 |
| league points | 38.00 | 19.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 12.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 10.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.80 | 66.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.40 | 45.00 |
| rest days | 6.69 | 5.98 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 1.46 | 0.73 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -8.20 | -4.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.20 | 11.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.13 | -1.33 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.60 |
| state index | -0.51 | -1.25 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.40 | -0.81 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.00 |