← 2. Bundesliga 2024-25 · Fri, Mar 7, 05:30 PM UTC · ref: F. Prigan
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Darmstadt win | 46% | 2.07 |
| Karlsruhe win | 27% | 3.63 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.63 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Karlsruhe −0.5 | 54% | 1.83 |
| Darmstadt −0.5 | 46% | 2.07 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 55% | 1.75 |
| Under | 45% | 2.15 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 10' | ⚽ | Isac Lidberg · Darmstadt |
| 30' | 🟨 | Nicolai Rapp · Karlsruhe |
| 50' | 🟨 | Marcel Beifus · Karlsruhe |
| 73' | ⚽ | Killian Corredor · Darmstadt |
| 79' | ⚽ | Matondo-Merveille Papela · Darmstadt |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 24 | Shots | 7 |
| 12 | On target | 2 |
| 2 | Corners | 3 |
| 6 | Fouls | 10 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Darmstadt | Karlsruhe |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.25 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 1.20 |
| venue | Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor |
| coach days |
| 187.00 |
| 1861.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -4.80 | 0.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.36 | 2.62 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.46 |
| elo | 1416.44 | 1498.87 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -25.80 | -6.14 |
| eye test v1 | -0.69 | -0.19 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.14 | -0.23 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.40 | 56.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.60 | 1.14 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.67 |
| league points | 28.00 | 40.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.40 | 79.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.40 | 50.80 |
| rest days | 5.21 | 5.92 |
| scorer concentration | 0.28 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 1.08 | 1.54 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -0.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.40 | 13.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.33 | 0.27 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.50 | 3.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 3.60 |
| state index | -0.71 | -0.18 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.60 | 0.11 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |