← 2. Bundesliga 2024-25 · Sun, Mar 2, 12:30 PM UTC · ref: P. Alt
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Magdeburg win | 49% | 45% | 1.96 | fair |
| Darmstadt win | 27% | 31% | 3.77 | value: +16% |
| Draw | 25% | 24% | 3.90 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Darmstadt −0.5 | 50% | 1.93 |
| Magdeburg −0.5 | 50% | 1.96 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 59% | 1.62 |
| Under | 41% | 2.41 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 23' | 🟨 | Jean-Paul Boëtius · Darmstadt |
| 28' | 🟨 | Matej Maglica · Darmstadt |
| 29' | ⚽ | Fraser Hornby · Darmstadt |
| 36' | 🟨 | Marcus Mathisen · Magdeburg |
| 45' | 🟨 | Isac Lidberg · Darmstadt |
| 56' | ⚽ | Xavier Amaechi · Magdeburg |
| 73' | ⚽ | Livan Burcu · Magdeburg |
| 76' | 🟨 | Tobias Kempe · Darmstadt |
| 78' | ⚽ | Abu-Bekir Ömer El-Zein · Magdeburg |
| 81' | ⚽ | Martijn Kaars · Magdeburg |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 17 | Shots | 14 |
| 10 | On target | 6 |
| 12 | Corners | 4 |
| 14 | Fouls | 12 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Magdeburg | Darmstadt |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.16 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.19 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.57 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 3.20 |
| venue | Avnet Arena |
| coach days | 60.00 | 182.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.03 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -4.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 1.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.03 | 2.79 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.55 |
| elo | 1545.14 | 1467.67 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 4.96 | -47.76 |
| eye test v1 | 1.12 | -0.76 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.32 | -0.26 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 48.10 | 54.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.79 | 1.62 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 2.00 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.62 | 0.73 |
| league points | 42.00 | 28.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 12.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 85.00 | 80.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 56.60 | 48.20 |
| rest days | 8.02 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.30 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 1.68 | 1.12 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 1.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.80 | 12.20 |
| skill v1 | 1.12 | 0.20 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.40 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 2.40 |
| squad age | 26.90 | 26.05 |
| state index | 0.13 | -0.65 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.34 | -0.03 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.40 |