← 2. Bundesliga 2024-25 · Sat, Mar 1, 12:00 PM UTC · ref: T. Bauer
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nurnberg win | 41% | 34% | 2.36 | fair |
| Hannover win | 32% | 38% | 3.10 | value: +19% |
| Draw | 28% | 27% | 3.48 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Hannover −0.25 | 52% | 1.86 |
| Nurnberg −0.25 | 48% | 2.04 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 54% | 1.78 |
| Under | 46% | 2.11 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| -5' | 🟨 | Christian Mathenia · Nurnberg |
| 36' | ⚽ | Stefanos Tzimas · Nurnberg |
| 42' | ⚽ | Enzo Leopold · Hannover |
| 57' | ⚽ | Josh Knight · Hannover |
| 59' | 🟨 | Fabian Kunze · Hannover |
| 60' | 🟨 | Ron-Robert Zieler · Hannover |
| 69' | 🟨 | Enzo Leopold · Hannover |
| 77' | 🟨 | Tim Janisch · Nurnberg |
| 84' | 🟨 | Monju Momuluh · Hannover |
| 87' | 🟨 | Lars Gindorf · Hannover |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 9 | Shots | 12 |
| 1 | On target | 5 |
| 4 | Corners | 2 |
| 13 | Fouls | 26 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Nurnberg | Hannover |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.42 | 0.23 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.53 | 0.21 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.22 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.71 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.60 |
| venue | Max-Morlock-Stadion |
| coach days | 273.00 | 90.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.72 | 1.99 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.54 |
| elo | 1486.27 | 1527.32 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 25.73 | 2.02 |
| eye test v1 | 0.56 | 0.05 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.13 | 0.18 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.70 | 59.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.07 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | — |
| league points | 35.00 | 35.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.60 | 79.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.60 | 47.60 |
| rest days | 7.77 | 6.69 |
| scorer concentration | 0.28 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 1.46 | 1.46 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 2.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.20 | 16.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.34 | 0.06 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.30 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 23.35 | 27.26 |
| state index | 0.29 | -0.14 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.04 | -0.80 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.35 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.20 |