← 2. Bundesliga 2024-25 · Sun, Feb 23, 12:30 PM UTC · ref: M. Bacher
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| 1. FC Köln win | 49% | 1.96 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.60 |
| Fortuna Dusseldorf win | 24% | 4.08 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Fortuna Dusseldorf −0.5 | 50% | 1.93 |
| 1. FC Köln −0.5 | 50% | 1.96 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 55% | 1.76 |
| Under | 45% | 2.14 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 7' | 🟨 | Moritz Heyer · Fortuna Dusseldorf |
| 67' | ⚽ | Florian Kainz · 1. FC Köln |
| 70' | 🟨 | Dawid Kownacki · Fortuna Dusseldorf |
| 72' | 🟨 | Giovanni Haag · Fortuna Dusseldorf |
| 72' | 🟨 | Jamil Siebert · Fortuna Dusseldorf |
| 79' | 🟨 | Leart Paqarada · 1. FC Köln |
| 87' | 🟨 | Linton Maina · 1. FC Köln |
| 90' | ⚽ (pen) | Ísak Bergmann Jóhannesson · Fortuna Dusseldorf |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 16 | Shots | 10 |
| 4 | On target | 3 |
| 7 | Corners | 0 |
| 13 | Fouls | 7 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | 1. FC Köln | Fortuna Dusseldorf |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 |
| venue | RheinEnergieSTADION |
| 3.00 |
| coach days | 237.00 | 1118.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.21 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.27 | 3.73 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.38 |
| elo | 1561.41 | 1544.15 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -1.39 | 21.16 |
| eye test v1 | -0.30 | -0.01 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.31 | -0.53 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 45.40 | 59.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 1.37 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 1.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.70 |
| league points | 44.00 | 37.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.00 | 82.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.40 | 50.20 |
| rest days | 8.79 | 7.71 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 1.83 | 1.61 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | -6.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.20 | 10.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.18 | 0.47 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 4.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 25.50 | — |
| state index | 0.34 | 0.17 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.32 | 0.48 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.17 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.20 |