← 2. Bundesliga 2024-25 · Sun, Feb 23, 12:30 PM UTC · ref: N. Winter
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darmstadt win | 42% | 44% | 2.25 | fair |
| FC Schalke 04 win | 30% | 33% | 3.25 | value: +6% |
| Draw | 27% | 23% | 3.56 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| FC Schalke 04 −0.25 | 50% | 1.94 |
| Darmstadt −0.25 | 50% | 1.94 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 54% | 1.77 |
| Under | 46% | 2.13 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3' | ⚽ | Isac Lidberg · Darmstadt |
| 5' | ⚽ | Isac Lidberg · Darmstadt |
| 11' | 🟨 | Aymen Barkok · FC Schalke 04 |
| 53' | 🟨 | Max Grüger · FC Schalke 04 |
| 55' | 🟨 | Killian Corredor · Darmstadt |
| 62' | 🟨 | Clemens Riedel · Darmstadt |
| 62' | 🟨 | Ron Schallenberg · FC Schalke 04 |
| 67' | 🟨 | Christopher Antwi-Adjei · FC Schalke 04 |
| 75' | 🟨 | Matondo-Merveille Papela · Darmstadt |
| 76' | 🟨 | Max Grüger · FC Schalke 04 |
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 5 |
| 3 | On target | 2 |
| 3 | Corners | 11 |
| 13 | Fouls | 15 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Darmstadt | FC Schalke 04 |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.11 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.25 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.56 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 1.80 |
| venue | Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor |
| 76' |
| 🟥 |
| Max Grüger · FC Schalke 04 |
| 84' | 🟨 | Fraser Hornby · Darmstadt |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 175.00 | 145.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.03 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -4.20 | 0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.87 | 2.84 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.56 |
| elo | 1452.80 | 1509.72 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -73.78 | -8.52 |
| eye test v1 | -0.59 | 0.09 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.67 | -0.11 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 50.90 | 63.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 0.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.63 | 1.70 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.67 |
| league points | 25.00 | 30.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 9.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.00 | 83.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.00 | 58.00 |
| rest days | 8.02 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.34 |
| season ppg | 1.04 | 1.30 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.80 | 15.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.42 | 1.07 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.50 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 1.33 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 26.80 | 26.71 |
| state index | -1.27 | 0.10 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.18 | 0.47 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.00 |