← 2. Bundesliga 2024-25 · Fri, Feb 21, 05:30 PM UTC · ref: S. Storks
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Hamburger SV win | 56% | 1.72 |
| Draw | 24% | 3.93 |
| Kaiserslautern win | 20% | 4.99 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Hamburger SV −0.75 | 51% | 1.91 |
| Kaiserslautern −0.75 | 49% | 1.99 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 64% | 1.51 |
| Under | 36% | 2.66 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 42' | ⚽ | Davie Selke · Hamburger SV |
| 58' | 🟨 | Adedire Mebude · Hamburger SV |
| 65' | ⚽ | Davie Selke · Hamburger SV |
| 78' | ⚽ | Fabio Baldé · Hamburger SV |
| 90' | 🟨 | Kenny Prince Redondo · Kaiserslautern |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 13 |
| 8 | On target | 2 |
| 11 | Corners | 2 |
| 11 | Fouls | 7 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Hamburger SV | Kaiserslautern |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.41 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.53 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.80 |
| venue | Volksparkstadion |
| 2.20 |
| coach days | 112.00 | 235.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.22 | 2.51 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1575.77 | 1500.27 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 16.02 | 39.50 |
| eye test v1 | 0.61 | 0.82 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.35 | -0.39 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.30 | 62.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.23 | 1.37 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | 0.80 |
| league points | 39.00 | 39.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 20.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.80 | 81.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 57.80 | 53.20 |
| rest days | 5.21 | 6.23 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.28 |
| season ppg | 1.70 | 1.70 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.20 | -0.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.20 | 16.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.90 | 0.61 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.80 | 5.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.80 |
| state index | 0.43 | 0.44 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.58 | -0.14 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.31 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.00 |