← 2. Bundesliga 2024-25 · Sun, Feb 16, 12:30 PM UTC · ref: L. Erbst
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Hamburger SV win | 60% | 1.60 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.31 |
| Regensburg win | 17% | 5.72 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Regensburg +1 | 51% | 1.91 |
| Hamburger SV +1 | 49% | 1.99 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 58% | 1.66 |
| Under | 42% | 2.31 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 6' | ⚽ | Sargis Adamyan · Regensburg |
| 31' | 🟨 | Marco Richter · Hamburger SV |
| 56' | 🟨 | Anssi Suhonen · Regensburg |
| 74' | 🟨 | Emir Sahiti · Hamburger SV |
| 76' | 🟨 | Ludovit Reis · Hamburger SV |
| 76' | 🟨 | Emir Sahiti · Hamburger SV |
| 76' | 🟥 | Emir Sahiti · Hamburger SV |
| 83' | ⚽ (pen) | Davie Selke · Hamburger SV |
| 90' | 🟨 | Daniel Elfadli · Hamburger SV |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 14 |
| 4 | On target | 6 |
| 9 | Corners | 7 |
| 19 | Fouls | 15 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Regensburg | Hamburger SV |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.44 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.25 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.69 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 3.00 |
| venue | Jahnstadion Regensburg |
| coach days | 138.00 | 107.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.20 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -6.00 | 0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 9.40 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.09 | 2.22 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.63 |
| elo | 1299.54 | 1581.41 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 13.61 | 32.09 |
| eye test v1 | -1.16 | 0.91 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.15 | -0.34 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.90 | 57.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 1.23 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.55 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.60 | 0.70 |
| league points | 17.00 | 38.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 66.60 | 84.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.40 | 55.20 |
| rest days | 8.79 | 8.79 |
| scorer concentration | 0.30 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 0.77 | 1.73 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -6.00 | 5.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.20 | 14.20 |
| skill v1 | -1.41 | 0.95 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.70 | 5.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 6.00 |
| state index | -0.73 | 0.87 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.70 | 0.46 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.00 |