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Fortuna Dusseldorf 2–1 Hertha

← 2. Bundesliga 2024-25 · Sat, Feb 15, 07:30 PM UTC · ref: T. Reichel

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Fortuna Dusseldorf win41%2.34
Hertha win33%3.00
Draw26%3.68

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Hertha −0.2552%1.86
Fortuna Dusseldorf −0.2548%2.04

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over61%1.57
Under39%2.53

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

13'⚽Fabian Reese · Hertha
55'⚽Dženan Pejčinović · Fortuna Dusseldorf
56'🟨Jamil Siebert · Fortuna Dusseldorf
58'⚽Dženan Pejčinović · Fortuna Dusseldorf

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1
9Shots21
4On target3
4Corners7
9Fouls10
1Yellow cards0
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricFortuna DusseldorfHertha
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.380.32
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.350.27
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.400.27
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.05
box share (last 5)0.580.80
cards avg (last 5)3.602.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueMerkur Spiel-Arena
coach days1110.0014.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.100.10
congestion 21d2.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.200.07
corner diff avg (last 5)-0.201.20
corners against avg (last 5)4.405.80
corners for avg (last 5)4.207.00
corners volatility (last 10)4.283.36
defensive leak (last 5)0.150.12
dominance (last 5)0.410.53
elo1538.631431.20
elo momentum (last 5)-9.68-22.94
eye test v10.21-0.28
eye trend v1-0.47-0.21
first sub minute (last 10)60.6052.30
form points (last 5)8.004.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.20-0.60
goals against avg (last 5)2.401.40
goals for avg (last 5)2.200.80
goals volatility (last 10)1.521.03
h2 goals (last 10)1.100.70
h2h win rate (last 5)0.600.40
ht lead rate (last 20)0.300.15
keeper form v10.690.68
league points34.0025.00
league rank10.0014.00
matches since blank8.000.00
matches since clean sheet6.004.00
matches since win1.003.00
pass acc avg (last 5)82.6081.80
possession avg (last 5)49.2056.20
rest days6.297.00
scorer concentration0.250.20
season ppg1.551.14
shot diff avg (last 5)-4.601.20
shots for avg (last 5)11.6013.60
skill v10.420.80
sot against avg (last 5)6.203.80
sot for avg (last 10)4.804.40
sot for avg (last 3)3.333.67
sot for avg (last 5)4.603.40
squad age—25.08
state index-0.18-0.54
sterile dominance v10.270.60
threat rate (last 10)0.250.25
threat rate (last 3)0.180.23
threat rate (last 5)0.240.24
venue ppg (last 5)1.401.40