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Braunschweig 1–0 Darmstadt

← 2. Bundesliga 2024-25 · Sat, Feb 15, 12:00 PM UTC · ref: M. Burda

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Darmstadt win37%2.63
Braunschweig win36%2.67
Draw27%3.60

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Darmstadt +050%1.93
Braunschweig +050%1.96

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over54%1.79
Under46%2.10

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

14'🟨Marco Thiede · Darmstadt
42'🟨Matondo-Merveille Papela · Darmstadt
45'🟨Lino Tempelmann · Braunschweig
45'🟨Jean-Paul Boëtius · Darmstadt
60'⚽Lino Tempelmann · Braunschweig
62'🟨Jean-Paul Boëtius · Darmstadt
62'🟥Jean-Paul Boëtius · Darmstadt
86'🟨Julian Baas · Braunschweig
90'🟨Fabio Di Michele Sanchez · Braunschweig
90'🟨Marcel Schuhen · Darmstadt
90'🟨

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
12Shots12
9On target1
3Corners1
12Fouls17
3Yellow cards7
0Red cards1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricBraunschweigDarmstadt
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.320.31
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.350.21
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.310.23
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.15
box share (last 5)0.610.55
cards avg (last 5)2.601.40
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEintracht-Stadion
Matej Maglica · Darmstadt
90'🟨Clemens Riedel · Darmstadt
coach days472.00167.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.05
congestion 21d2.004.00
conversion (last 5)0.070.04
corner diff avg (last 5)-2.40-4.20
corners against avg (last 5)7.206.80
corners for avg (last 5)4.802.60
corners volatility (last 10)2.732.67
defensive leak (last 5)0.060.14
dominance (last 5)0.340.52
elo1361.421422.01
elo momentum (last 5)19.47-57.65
eye test v1-0.72-0.28
eye trend v10.27-0.50
first sub minute (last 10)54.3049.90
form points (last 5)5.001.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.00-1.60
goals against avg (last 5)0.802.00
goals for avg (last 5)0.800.40
goals volatility (last 10)0.841.62
h2 goals (last 10)0.501.10
h2h win rate (last 5)0.200.80
ht lead rate (last 20)0.300.30
keeper form v10.600.73
league points18.0025.00
league rank18.0015.00
matches since blank3.000.00
matches since clean sheet0.008.00
matches since win0.006.00
pass acc avg (last 5)75.8081.00
possession avg (last 5)39.4055.40
rest days5.987.00
scorer concentration0.440.25
season ppg0.821.09
shot diff avg (last 5)-8.601.40
shots for avg (last 5)9.4014.60
skill v1-0.830.67
sot against avg (last 5)4.005.00
sot for avg (last 10)3.404.80
sot for avg (last 3)4.002.67
sot for avg (last 5)3.003.40
state index-0.49-1.17
sterile dominance v1-0.520.35
threat rate (last 10)0.260.27
threat rate (last 3)0.290.24
threat rate (last 5)0.240.26
venue ppg (last 5)0.401.00