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1. FC Köln 1–0 FC Schalke 04

← 2. Bundesliga 2024-25 · Sun, Feb 9, 12:30 PM UTC · ref: T. Welz

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
1. FC Köln win51%1.89
Draw25%3.80
FC Schalke 04 win24%4.17

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
1. FC Köln −0.551%1.89
FC Schalke 04 −0.549%2.01

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over56%1.71
Under44%2.22

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

34'🟨Joel Schmied · 1. FC Köln
39'🟨Mathias Olesen · 1. FC Köln
43'⚽Damion Downs · 1. FC Köln
72'🟨Damion Downs · 1. FC Köln

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
12Shots11
3On target2
4Corners4
14Fouls6
3Yellow cards0
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

Metric1. FC KölnFC Schalke 04
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.270.32
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.260.30
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.340.35
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.15
box share (last 5)0.780.62
cards avg (last 5)2.001.80
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueRheinEnergieSTADION
coach days223.00131.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d3.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.100.14
corner diff avg (last 5)-2.20-1.20
corners against avg (last 5)7.603.80
corners for avg (last 5)5.402.60
corners volatility (last 10)2.282.76
defensive leak (last 5)0.040.11
dominance (last 5)0.510.58
elo1573.861469.51
elo momentum (last 5)18.609.68
eye test v10.000.74
eye trend v10.08-0.17
first sub minute (last 10)50.4065.00
form points (last 5)12.0010.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.601.00
goals against avg (last 5)0.401.60
goals for avg (last 5)1.002.60
goals volatility (last 10)0.821.55
h2 goals (last 10)0.501.10
h2h win rate (last 5)0.900.10
ht lead rate (last 20)0.500.35
keeper form v10.830.71
league points41.0027.00
league rank1.0012.00
matches since blank3.002.00
matches since clean sheet1.002.00
matches since win0.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)78.2080.80
possession avg (last 5)44.0055.60
rest days8.027.71
scorer concentration0.240.36
season ppg1.861.29
shot diff avg (last 5)0.003.60
shots for avg (last 5)12.2015.80
skill v1-0.310.67
sot against avg (last 5)3.605.20
sot for avg (last 10)3.405.20
sot for avg (last 3)3.334.67
sot for avg (last 5)4.205.80
squad age25.5026.69
state index0.580.29
sterile dominance v1-0.520.08
threat rate (last 10)0.260.28
threat rate (last 3)0.250.27
threat rate (last 5)0.280.29
venue ppg (last 5)2.602.20