← 2. Bundesliga 2024-25 · Sun, Feb 2, 12:30 PM UTC · ref: R. Hempel
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| SC Paderborn 07 win | 55% | 1.73 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.10 |
| Greuther Furth win | 21% | 4.76 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| SC Paderborn 07 −0.75 | 51% | 1.93 |
| Greuther Furth −0.75 | 49% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 58% | 1.67 |
| Under | 42% | 2.30 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 21' | ⚽ | Branimir Hrgota · Greuther Furth |
| 26' | 🟥 | Manuel Riemann · SC Paderborn 07 |
| 35' | 🟨 | Julian Green · Greuther Furth |
| 43' | 🟨 | Marcel Hoffmeier · SC Paderborn 07 |
| 45' | 🟨 | Sven Michel · SC Paderborn 07 |
| 45' | 🟨 | Dennis Srbeny · Greuther Furth |
| 50' | ⚽ | Noah Loosli · Greuther Furth |
| 63' | ⚽ | Adriano Grimaldi · SC Paderborn 07 |
| 90' | 🟨 | Ilyas Ansah · SC Paderborn 07 |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 16 | Shots | 10 |
| 6 | On target | 6 |
| 6 | Corners | 6 |
| 12 | Fouls | 12 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SC Paderborn 07 | Greuther Furth |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.48 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 |
| venue | Home Deluxe Arena |
| 3.20 |
| coach days | 1312.00 | 32.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.40 | -1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.62 | 1.99 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.17 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.45 |
| elo | 1521.11 | 1395.55 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -38.99 | -11.99 |
| eye test v1 | 0.74 | -0.40 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.25 | -0.15 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.50 | 58.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.07 | 1.17 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | 0.53 |
| league points | 34.00 | 21.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 9.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.20 | 78.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.60 | 45.20 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.79 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.30 |
| season ppg | 1.70 | 1.05 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -2.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.40 | 10.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.02 | -0.20 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.70 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.00 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 3.20 |
| state index | -0.40 | -0.82 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.28 | -0.23 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |