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FC Schalke 04 2–5 Magdeburg

← 2. Bundesliga 2024-25 · Sat, Feb 1, 07:30 PM UTC · ref: P. Alt

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
FC Schalke 04 win40%2.41
Magdeburg win32%2.99
Draw27%3.60

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Magdeburg −0.2553%1.83
FC Schalke 04 −0.2547%2.08

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over60%1.62
Under40%2.40

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

6'🟨Max Grüger · FC Schalke 04
29'⚽Martijn Kaars · Magdeburg
36'🟨Paul Seguin · FC Schalke 04
45'🟨Mehmet Aydin · FC Schalke 04
45'⚽Martijn Kaars · Magdeburg
55'⚽Martijn Kaars · Magdeburg
60'🟨Marcus Mathisen · Magdeburg
64'🟨Adrian Gantenbein · FC Schalke 04
65'⚽Philipp Hercher · Magdeburg
69'⚽Adrian Gantenbein · FC Schalke 04
74'⚽Martijn Kaars · Magdeburg
90'⚽Janik Bachmann · FC Schalke 04

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score2
18Shots18
9On target11
5Corners6
9Fouls7
4Yellow cards1
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricFC Schalke 04Magdeburg
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.300.36
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.240.46
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.330.40
blown lead rate (last 20)0.15—
box share (last 5)0.630.60
cards avg (last 5)1.202.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueVELTINS-Arena
coach days
123.00
31.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.00—
congestion 21d2.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.150.17
corner diff avg (last 5)-0.20-1.00
corners against avg (last 5)3.005.80
corners for avg (last 5)2.804.80
corners volatility (last 10)2.794.08
defensive leak (last 5)0.130.13
dominance (last 5)0.650.58
elo1489.311503.50
elo momentum (last 5)56.5963.22
eye test v10.861.20
eye trend v1-0.300.43
first sub minute (last 10)66.0046.70
form points (last 5)11.0011.00
goal diff avg (last 5)1.601.80
goals against avg (last 5)0.801.60
goals for avg (last 5)2.403.40
goals volatility (last 10)1.701.95
h2 goals (last 10)1.101.20
ht lead rate (last 20)0.35—
keeper form v10.740.64
league points27.0036.00
league rank12.002.00
matches since blank1.008.00
matches since clean sheet1.007.00
matches since win0.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)79.8085.80
possession avg (last 5)54.6062.20
rest days7.318.08
scorer concentration0.380.26
season ppg1.351.71
shot diff avg (last 5)7.604.40
shots for avg (last 5)17.2016.00
skill v10.511.55
sot against avg (last 5)3.804.20
sot for avg (last 10)4.905.60
sot for avg (last 3)3.338.33
sot for avg (last 5)6.006.80
squad age26.69—
state index0.710.89
sterile dominance v1-0.260.83
threat rate (last 10)0.290.26
threat rate (last 3)0.280.27
threat rate (last 5)0.320.27
venue ppg (last 5)1.403.00