← 2. Bundesliga 2024-25 · Sun, Jan 26, 12:30 PM UTC · ref: M. Petersen
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Darmstadt win | 43% | 2.23 |
| SC Paderborn 07 win | 31% | 3.18 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.71 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Darmstadt −0.25 | 50% | 1.93 |
| SC Paderborn 07 −0.25 | 50% | 1.95 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 62% | 1.55 |
| Under | 38% | 2.58 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 8' | 🟨 | Casper Terho · SC Paderborn 07 |
| 24' | 🟨 | Felix Götze · SC Paderborn 07 |
| 31' | 🟨 | Marvin Mehlem · SC Paderborn 07 |
| 35' | 🟨 | Felix Platte · SC Paderborn 07 |
| 37' | ⚽ | Felix Platte · SC Paderborn 07 |
| 45' | 🟨 | Clemens Riedel · Darmstadt |
| 74' | 🟨 | Sven Michel · SC Paderborn 07 |
| 85' | 🟨 | Marcel Hoffmeier · SC Paderborn 07 |
| 86' | 🟨 | Matej Maglica · Darmstadt |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 13 | Shots | 11 |
| 5 | On target | 4 |
| 3 | Corners | 11 |
| 11 | Fouls | 17 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 6 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Darmstadt | SC Paderborn 07 |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.42 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.48 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 |
| venue | Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor |
| 1.00 |
| coach days | 147.00 | 1305.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 6.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.46 | 2.40 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.17 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.56 |
| elo | 1482.55 | 1510.18 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 6.35 | -34.72 |
| eye test v1 | 0.74 | 0.92 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.11 | 0.49 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.60 | 57.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.84 | 1.06 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.77 | 0.63 |
| league points | 25.00 | 31.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.60 | 79.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 58.80 | 52.20 |
| rest days | 8.79 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 1.32 | 1.63 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 17.20 | 15.60 |
| skill v1 | 1.04 | 0.36 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.90 | 4.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 7.00 | 6.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 6.00 |
| state index | 0.28 | -0.25 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.30 | 0.02 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.20 |