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Hertha 2–3 Hamburger SV

← 2. Bundesliga 2024-25 · Sat, Jan 25, 07:30 PM UTC · ref: T. Welz

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Hamburger SV win41%2.39
Hertha win34%2.83
Draw25%3.81

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Hertha +0.2553%1.82
Hamburger SV +0.2547%2.09

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over64%1.51
Under36%2.66

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

3'🟨Emir Sahiti · Hamburger SV
11'🟨Dennis Hadžikadunić · Hamburger SV
23'⚽Davie Selke · Hamburger SV
61'⚽Ransford Yeboah Königsdörffer · Hamburger SV
62'🟨Florian Niederlechner · Hertha
72'⚽Michaël Cuisance · Hertha
80'⚽Marten Winkler · Hertha
84'⚽Emir Sahiti · Hamburger SV
88'🟨Łukasz Poręba · Hamburger SV
90'🟨Miro Muheim · Hamburger SV

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1
12Shots10
4On target5
8Corners4
10Fouls10
1Yellow cards4
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricHerthaHamburger SV
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.400.38
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.280.44
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.320.42
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.20
box share (last 5)0.690.73
cards avg (last 5)3.403.60
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueOlympiastadion Berlin
coach days238.0085.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.150.00
congestion 21d1.001.00
conversion (last 5)0.120.18
corner diff avg (last 5)0.40-2.00
corners against avg (last 5)5.406.00
corners for avg (last 5)5.804.00
corners volatility (last 10)3.062.05
defensive leak (last 5)0.090.05
dominance (last 5)0.510.53
elo1470.221568.18
elo momentum (last 5)10.4032.19
eye test v1-0.020.86
eye trend v1-0.57-0.27
first sub minute (last 10)47.2056.00
form points (last 5)7.0011.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.201.60
goals against avg (last 5)1.200.80
goals for avg (last 5)1.402.40
goals volatility (last 10)1.171.25
h2 goals (last 10)1.000.80
h2h win rate (last 5)0.500.50
ht lead rate (last 20)0.150.50
keeper form v10.700.72
league points25.0031.00
league rank12.005.00
matches since blank1.0016.00
matches since clean sheet1.000.00
matches since win0.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)81.8083.00
possession avg (last 5)52.2049.40
rest days6.297.00
scorer concentration0.220.26
season ppg1.321.63
shot diff avg (last 5)-0.201.00
shots for avg (last 5)13.0013.80
skill v10.540.47
sot against avg (last 5)3.403.60
sot for avg (last 10)5.205.60
sot for avg (last 3)3.335.33
sot for avg (last 5)4.006.00
squad age25.08—
state index-0.000.65
sterile dominance v10.28-0.10
threat rate (last 10)0.260.30
threat rate (last 3)0.240.23
threat rate (last 5)0.250.29
venue ppg (last 5)0.800.80