← 2. Bundesliga 2024-25 · Sat, Jan 25, 07:30 PM UTC · ref: T. Welz
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Hamburger SV win | 41% | 2.39 |
| Hertha win | 34% | 2.83 |
| Draw | 25% | 3.81 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Hertha +0.25 | 53% | 1.82 |
| Hamburger SV +0.25 | 47% | 2.09 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 64% | 1.51 |
| Under | 36% | 2.66 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3' | 🟨 | Emir Sahiti · Hamburger SV |
| 11' | 🟨 | Dennis Hadžikadunić · Hamburger SV |
| 23' | ⚽ | Davie Selke · Hamburger SV |
| 61' | ⚽ | Ransford Yeboah Königsdörffer · Hamburger SV |
| 62' | 🟨 | Florian Niederlechner · Hertha |
| 72' | ⚽ | Michaël Cuisance · Hertha |
| 80' | ⚽ | Marten Winkler · Hertha |
| 84' | ⚽ | Emir Sahiti · Hamburger SV |
| 88' | 🟨 | Łukasz Poręba · Hamburger SV |
| 90' | 🟨 | Miro Muheim · Hamburger SV |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 12 | Shots | 10 |
| 4 | On target | 5 |
| 8 | Corners | 4 |
| 10 | Fouls | 10 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Hertha | Hamburger SV |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.42 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.73 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.60 |
| venue | Olympiastadion Berlin |
| coach days | 238.00 | 85.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.18 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 6.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.06 | 2.05 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.05 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.53 |
| elo | 1470.22 | 1568.18 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 10.40 | 32.19 |
| eye test v1 | -0.02 | 0.86 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.57 | -0.27 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 47.20 | 56.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.17 | 1.25 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.72 |
| league points | 25.00 | 31.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.80 | 83.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.20 | 49.40 |
| rest days | 6.29 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 1.32 | 1.63 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 1.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.00 | 13.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.54 | 0.47 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.20 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| squad age | 25.08 | — |
| state index | -0.00 | 0.65 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.28 | -0.10 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |