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Karlsruhe 2–3 Fortuna Dusseldorf

← 2. Bundesliga 2024-25 · Sat, Jan 25, 12:00 PM UTC · ref: W. Haslberger

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Karlsruhe win38%2.54
Fortuna Dusseldorf win36%2.73
Draw26%3.80

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Karlsruhe +052%1.88
Fortuna Dusseldorf +048%2.03

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over59%1.63
Under41%2.38

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

-5'🟨Myron Van Brederode · Fortuna Dusseldorf
8'⚽Mikkel Kaufmann · Karlsruhe
20'🟨Dženis Burnić · Karlsruhe
22'⚽Robin Heußer · Karlsruhe
26'🟨Marvin Wanitzek · Karlsruhe
47'⚽Dženan Pejčinović · Fortuna Dusseldorf
48'🟨Valgeir Lunddal · Fortuna Dusseldorf
57'🟨Giovanni Haag · Fortuna Dusseldorf
80'🟨Max Weiss · Karlsruhe
81'⚽ (pen)Dawid Kownacki · Fortuna Dusseldorf
90'🟨

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score0
13Shots14
5On target5
6Corners9
11Fouls6
3Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricKarlsruheFortuna Dusseldorf
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.300.36
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.500.46
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.360.44
blown lead rate (last 20)0.200.10
box share (last 5)0.810.71
cards avg (last 5)3.40
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueBBBank Wildpark
Dawid Kownacki · Fortuna Dusseldorf
90'⚽Dawid Kownacki · Fortuna Dusseldorf
3.60
coach days1820.001089.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.150.05
congestion 21d1.001.00
conversion (last 5)0.180.16
corner diff avg (last 5)-2.20-0.80
corners against avg (last 5)5.805.80
corners for avg (last 5)3.605.00
corners volatility (last 10)3.103.60
defensive leak (last 5)0.160.13
dominance (last 5)0.400.47
elo1516.621520.10
elo momentum (last 5)-27.38-23.27
eye test v1-0.090.79
eye trend v10.520.11
first sub minute (last 10)60.1060.90
form points (last 5)6.006.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.400.40
goals against avg (last 5)2.202.00
goals for avg (last 5)1.802.40
goals volatility (last 10)1.071.58
h2 goals (last 10)0.801.10
h2h win rate (last 5)0.200.80
ht lead rate (last 20)0.400.25
keeper form v10.690.70
league points32.0027.00
league rank3.0010.00
matches since blank17.005.00
matches since clean sheet9.003.00
matches since win1.003.00
pass acc avg (last 5)78.0083.40
possession avg (last 5)46.0046.60
rest days5.987.77
scorer concentration0.350.22
season ppg1.681.42
shot diff avg (last 5)-5.00-1.20
shots for avg (last 5)11.0014.00
skill v1-0.200.33
sot against avg (last 5)6.807.40
sot for avg (last 10)3.405.10
sot for avg (last 3)5.005.33
sot for avg (last 5)4.005.80
state index-0.42-0.15
sterile dominance v1-0.22-0.19
threat rate (last 10)0.250.27
threat rate (last 3)0.210.27
threat rate (last 5)0.250.28
venue ppg (last 5)1.001.60