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Magdeburg 1–1 Braunschweig

← 2. Bundesliga 2024-25 · Fri, Jan 24, 05:30 PM UTC · ref: R. Braun

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Magdeburg win63%1.53
Draw21%4.75
Braunschweig win16%6.49

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Braunschweig −1.2553%1.83
Magdeburg −1.2547%2.08

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over62%1.55
Under38%2.57

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

5'⚽Barış Atik · Magdeburg
35'🟨Fabio Kaufmann · Braunschweig
42'🟨Paul Jaeckel · Braunschweig
69'⚽ (pen)Lino Tempelmann · Braunschweig
73'🟨Barış Atik · Magdeburg
76'🟨Mo El Hankouri · Magdeburg
82'🟨Robin Krausse · Braunschweig

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
15Shots8
4On target2
10Corners6
9Fouls13
0Yellow cards0
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricMagdeburgBraunschweig
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.350.30
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.470.23
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.380.25
blown lead rate (last 20)—0.10
box share (last 5)0.610.66
cards avg (last 5)2.603.40
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueAvnet Arena
coach days23.00450.00
comeback rate (last 20)—0.00
congestion 21d2.001.00
conversion (last 5)0.170.00
corner diff avg (last 5)-1.40-1.80
corners against avg (last 5)5.205.80
corners for avg (last 5)3.804.00
corners volatility (last 10)4.082.18
defensive leak (last 5)0.150.10
dominance (last 5)0.550.33
elo1509.331337.51
elo momentum (last 5)81.54-39.75
eye test v11.00-1.04
eye trend v10.55-0.28
first sub minute (last 10)44.7051.60
form points (last 5)13.001.00
goal diff avg (last 5)2.00-2.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.602.40
goals for avg (last 5)3.600.00
goals volatility (last 10)2.041.07
h2 goals (last 10)1.300.30
h2h win rate (last 5)0.600.40
ht lead rate (last 20)—0.25
keeper form v10.620.67
league points35.0014.00
league rank1.0019.00
matches since blank7.000.00
matches since clean sheet6.000.00
matches since win0.007.00
pass acc avg (last 5)85.2077.20
possession avg (last 5)59.8044.20
rest days5.216.23
scorer concentration0.270.50
season ppg1.750.74
shot diff avg (last 5)3.00-8.60
shots for avg (last 5)15.408.80
skill v11.34-0.39
sot against avg (last 5)5.205.00
sot for avg (last 10)5.402.90
sot for avg (last 3)8.331.67
sot for avg (last 5)6.402.40
state index0.73-1.59
sterile dominance v10.660.04
threat rate (last 10)0.260.24
threat rate (last 3)0.290.17
threat rate (last 5)0.270.20
venue ppg (last 5)0.600.20