← 2. Bundesliga 2024-25 · Sun, Jan 19, 12:30 PM UTC · ref: F. Heft
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| SC Paderborn 07 win | 43% | 2.23 |
| Hertha win | 31% | 3.18 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.70 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| SC Paderborn 07 −0.25 | 50% | 1.93 |
| Hertha −0.25 | 50% | 1.95 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 60% | 1.61 |
| Under | 40% | 2.41 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 12' | 🟨 | Derry Scherhant · Hertha |
| 16' | ⚽ | Derry Scherhant · Hertha |
| 40' | 🟨 | Tjark Lasse Scheller · SC Paderborn 07 |
| 69' | ⚽ (pen) | Michaël Cuisance · Hertha |
| 82' | 🟨 | Marten Winkler · Hertha |
| 90' | 🟨 | Smail Prevljak · Hertha |
| 90' | 🟨 | Toni Leistner · Hertha |
| 90' | ⚽ | Sven Michel · SC Paderborn 07 |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 21 | Shots | 10 |
| 5 | On target | 4 |
| 7 | Corners | 4 |
| 14 | Fouls | 7 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SC Paderborn 07 | Hertha |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.58 | 0.23 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.72 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.60 |
| venue | Home Deluxe Arena |
| coach days | 1298.00 | 232.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| congestion 21d | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.39 | 3.00 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.55 |
| elo | 1523.68 | 1456.72 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -2.85 | -4.43 |
| eye test v1 | 0.98 | 0.18 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.44 | -0.78 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.40 | 47.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.17 | 1.17 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | 0.50 |
| league points | 31.00 | 22.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.40 | 82.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.60 | 55.00 |
| rest days | 29.02 | 28.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 1.72 | 1.22 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.60 | 13.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.25 | 0.78 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.90 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.33 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 4.40 |
| squad age | — | 25.08 |
| state index | 0.00 | -0.13 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.02 | 0.39 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |