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SC Paderborn 07 1–2 Hertha

← 2. Bundesliga 2024-25 · Sun, Jan 19, 12:30 PM UTC · ref: F. Heft

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
SC Paderborn 07 win43%2.23
Hertha win31%3.18
Draw26%3.70

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
SC Paderborn 07 −0.2550%1.93
Hertha −0.2550%1.95

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over60%1.61
Under40%2.41

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

12'🟨Derry Scherhant · Hertha
16'⚽Derry Scherhant · Hertha
40'🟨Tjark Lasse Scheller · SC Paderborn 07
69'⚽ (pen)Michaël Cuisance · Hertha
82'🟨Marten Winkler · Hertha
90'🟨Smail Prevljak · Hertha
90'🟨Toni Leistner · Hertha
90'⚽Sven Michel · SC Paderborn 07

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1
21Shots10
5On target4
7Corners4
14Fouls7
1Yellow cards4
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricSC Paderborn 07Hertha
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.390.40
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.580.23
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.520.32
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.05
box share (last 5)0.720.65
cards avg (last 5)0.802.60
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueHome Deluxe Arena
coach days1298.00232.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.15
congestion 21d0.000.00
conversion (last 5)0.190.11
corner diff avg (last 5)2.200.80
corners against avg (last 5)4.005.00
corners for avg (last 5)6.205.80
corners volatility (last 10)2.393.00
defensive leak (last 5)0.160.11
dominance (last 5)0.520.55
elo1523.681456.72
elo momentum (last 5)-2.85-4.43
eye test v10.980.18
eye trend v10.44-0.78
first sub minute (last 10)59.4047.10
form points (last 5)7.005.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.200.00
goals against avg (last 5)1.801.40
goals for avg (last 5)2.001.40
goals volatility (last 10)1.171.17
h2 goals (last 10)1.101.00
h2h win rate (last 5)0.200.80
ht lead rate (last 20)0.100.10
keeper form v10.630.50
league points31.0022.00
league rank5.0014.00
matches since blank7.000.00
matches since clean sheet7.000.00
matches since win3.003.00
pass acc avg (last 5)80.4082.40
possession avg (last 5)49.6055.00
rest days29.0228.00
scorer concentration0.210.23
season ppg1.721.22
shot diff avg (last 5)0.802.20
shots for avg (last 5)13.6013.80
skill v10.250.78
sot against avg (last 5)5.003.40
sot for avg (last 10)4.905.40
sot for avg (last 3)6.333.00
sot for avg (last 5)6.204.40
squad age—25.08
state index0.00-0.13
sterile dominance v1-0.020.39
threat rate (last 10)0.230.27
threat rate (last 3)0.230.23
threat rate (last 5)0.260.26
venue ppg (last 5)1.401.40