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Nurnberg 2–1 Karlsruhe

← 2. Bundesliga 2024-25 · Sun, Jan 19, 12:30 PM UTC · ref: S. Storks

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Nurnberg win50%1.91
Karlsruhe win25%3.96
Draw24%4.00

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Nurnberg −0.551%1.90
Karlsruhe −0.549%2.00

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over62%1.56
Under38%2.56

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

36'⚽Stefanos Tzimas · Nurnberg
40'⚽Fabian Schleusener · Karlsruhe
45'🟨Mahir Emreli · Nurnberg
45'🟨Max Weiss · Karlsruhe
68'🟨Dženis Burnić · Karlsruhe
70'🟨Leon Jensen · Karlsruhe
80'🟨Robin Heußer · Karlsruhe
90'🟨Stefanos Tzimas · Nurnberg
90'🟨Danilo Soares · Nurnberg
90'🟨Nicolai Rapp · Karlsruhe
90'⚽Florian Flick

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score1
16Shots4
8On target2
9Corners2
8Fouls12
3Yellow cards5
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricNurnbergKarlsruhe
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.420.29
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.320.37
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.340.30
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.20
box share (last 5)0.740.80
cards avg (last 5)1.602.80
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueMax-Morlock-Stadion
· Nurnberg
coach days232.001814.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.100.15
congestion 21d0.000.00
conversion (last 5)0.100.18
corner diff avg (last 5)2.40-1.20
corners against avg (last 5)5.405.40
corners for avg (last 5)7.804.20
corners volatility (last 10)3.532.99
defensive leak (last 5)0.140.17
dominance (last 5)0.520.46
elo1400.551528.55
elo momentum (last 5)-9.85-7.26
eye test v10.400.05
eye trend v1-0.570.24
first sub minute (last 10)61.6059.40
form points (last 5)4.009.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.600.00
goals against avg (last 5)1.802.20
goals for avg (last 5)1.202.20
goals volatility (last 10)2.331.14
h2 goals (last 10)1.300.90
h2h win rate (last 5)0.100.90
ht lead rate (last 20)0.200.40
keeper form v10.640.68
league points22.0032.00
league rank14.002.00
matches since blank6.0016.00
matches since clean sheet0.008.00
matches since win0.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)85.0079.00
possession avg (last 5)55.0050.20
rest days28.7129.02
scorer concentration0.290.36
season ppg1.221.78
shot diff avg (last 5)0.60-2.40
shots for avg (last 5)14.4013.00
skill v11.020.16
sot against avg (last 5)4.806.20
sot for avg (last 10)6.603.70
sot for avg (last 3)5.004.67
sot for avg (last 5)4.804.20
state index-0.220.05
sterile dominance v10.45-0.18
threat rate (last 10)0.290.27
threat rate (last 3)0.290.23
threat rate (last 5)0.260.28
venue ppg (last 5)2.201.80