← 2. Bundesliga 2024-25 · Sun, Jan 19, 12:30 PM UTC · ref: S. Storks
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Nurnberg win | 50% | 1.91 |
| Karlsruhe win | 25% | 3.96 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.00 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Nurnberg −0.5 | 51% | 1.90 |
| Karlsruhe −0.5 | 49% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 62% | 1.56 |
| Under | 38% | 2.56 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 36' | ⚽ | Stefanos Tzimas · Nurnberg |
| 40' | ⚽ | Fabian Schleusener · Karlsruhe |
| 45' | 🟨 | Mahir Emreli · Nurnberg |
| 45' | 🟨 | Max Weiss · Karlsruhe |
| 68' | 🟨 | Dženis Burnić · Karlsruhe |
| 70' | 🟨 | Leon Jensen · Karlsruhe |
| 80' | 🟨 | Robin Heußer · Karlsruhe |
| 90' | 🟨 | Stefanos Tzimas · Nurnberg |
| 90' | 🟨 | Danilo Soares · Nurnberg |
| 90' | 🟨 | Nicolai Rapp · Karlsruhe |
| 90' | ⚽ | Florian Flick |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 16 | Shots | 4 |
| 8 | On target | 2 |
| 9 | Corners | 2 |
| 8 | Fouls | 12 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Nurnberg | Karlsruhe |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.42 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.74 | 0.80 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.80 |
| venue | Max-Morlock-Stadion |
| coach days | 232.00 | 1814.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| congestion 21d | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.18 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.40 | -1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.80 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.53 | 2.99 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.17 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.46 |
| elo | 1400.55 | 1528.55 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -9.85 | -7.26 |
| eye test v1 | 0.40 | 0.05 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.57 | 0.24 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.60 | 59.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 2.33 | 1.14 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.30 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | 0.68 |
| league points | 22.00 | 32.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 85.00 | 79.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 55.00 | 50.20 |
| rest days | 28.71 | 29.02 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.36 |
| season ppg | 1.22 | 1.78 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -2.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.40 | 13.00 |
| skill v1 | 1.02 | 0.16 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 6.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.60 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.20 |
| state index | -0.22 | 0.05 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.45 | -0.18 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.80 |