← 2. Bundesliga 2024-25 · Sun, Dec 22, 12:30 PM UTC · ref: T. Bauer
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Darmstadt win | 56% | 1.72 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.33 |
| Regensburg win | 21% | 4.84 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Darmstadt +0.75 | 51% | 1.93 |
| Regensburg +0.75 | 49% | 1.96 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 55% | 1.75 |
| Under | 45% | 2.17 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 29' | 🟨 | Fraser Hornby · Darmstadt |
| 44' | 🟨 | Aleksandar Vukotić · Darmstadt |
| 63' | 🟨 | Elias Huth · Regensburg |
| 65' | ⚽ | Kai Pröger · Regensburg |
| 90' | 🟨 | Ben Kieffer · Regensburg |
| 90' | 🟨 | Felix Gebhardt · Regensburg |
| 90' | 🟨 | Kai Pröger · Regensburg |
| 90' | 🟨 | Noah Ganaus · Regensburg |
| 90' | ⚽ | Noah Ganaus · Regensburg |
| 90' | ⚽ | Kai Klefisch · Darmstadt |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 21 |
| 5 | On target | 6 |
| 6 | Corners | 9 |
| 15 | Fouls | 9 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Regensburg | Darmstadt |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | — | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 3.20 |
| venue | Jahnstadion Regensburg |
| coach days | 82.00 | 112.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | — | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.03 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.82 | 2.32 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.58 |
| elo | 1285.93 | 1493.67 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -22.08 | 43.60 |
| eye test v1 | -0.54 | 0.98 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.33 | -0.30 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 66.70 | 50.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 2.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.06 | 1.83 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.20 | 1.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | — | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.58 | 0.74 |
| league points | 11.00 | 24.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 71.00 | 84.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 36.60 | 57.60 |
| rest days | 8.79 | 7.71 |
| scorer concentration | 0.40 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 0.65 | 1.41 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 3.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.40 | 15.40 |
| skill v1 | -1.45 | 1.15 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.10 | 6.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 6.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 6.20 |
| state index | -1.07 | 0.69 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.71 | 0.43 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.20 |