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Regensburg 2–1 Darmstadt

← 2. Bundesliga 2024-25 · Sun, Dec 22, 12:30 PM UTC · ref: T. Bauer

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Darmstadt win56%1.72
Draw23%4.33
Regensburg win21%4.84

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Darmstadt +0.7551%1.93
Regensburg +0.7549%1.96

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over55%1.75
Under45%2.17

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

29'🟨Fraser Hornby · Darmstadt
44'🟨Aleksandar Vukotić · Darmstadt
63'🟨Elias Huth · Regensburg
65'⚽Kai Pröger · Regensburg
90'🟨Ben Kieffer · Regensburg
90'🟨Felix Gebhardt · Regensburg
90'🟨Kai Pröger · Regensburg
90'🟨Noah Ganaus · Regensburg
90'⚽Noah Ganaus · Regensburg
90'⚽Kai Klefisch · Darmstadt

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
14Shots21
5On target6
6Corners9
15Fouls9
5Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricRegensburgDarmstadt
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.250.41
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.280.36
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.220.39
blown lead rate (last 20)—0.15
box share (last 5)0.530.66
cards avg (last 5)2.603.20
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueJahnstadion Regensburg
coach days82.00112.00
comeback rate (last 20)—0.05
congestion 21d2.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.030.16
corner diff avg (last 5)0.200.20
corners against avg (last 5)4.404.20
corners for avg (last 5)4.604.40
corners volatility (last 10)2.822.32
defensive leak (last 5)0.110.07
dominance (last 5)0.500.58
elo1285.931493.67
elo momentum (last 5)-22.0843.60
eye test v1-0.540.98
eye trend v10.33-0.30
first sub minute (last 10)66.7050.50
form points (last 5)1.0011.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-1.201.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.601.00
goals for avg (last 5)0.402.40
goals volatility (last 10)1.061.83
h2 goals (last 10)0.201.50
h2h win rate (last 5)0.500.50
ht lead rate (last 20)—0.30
keeper form v10.580.74
league points11.0024.00
league rank19.0011.00
matches since blank1.002.00
matches since clean sheet2.002.00
matches since win5.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)71.0084.60
possession avg (last 5)36.6057.60
rest days8.797.71
scorer concentration0.400.26
season ppg0.651.41
shot diff avg (last 5)0.203.00
shots for avg (last 5)12.4015.40
skill v1-1.451.15
sot against avg (last 5)3.805.20
sot for avg (last 10)3.106.50
sot for avg (last 3)4.006.33
sot for avg (last 5)3.006.20
state index-1.070.69
sterile dominance v1-1.710.43
threat rate (last 10)0.340.29
threat rate (last 3)0.380.30
threat rate (last 5)0.350.28
venue ppg (last 5)1.202.20