← 2. Bundesliga 2024-25 · Sun, Dec 15, 12:30 PM UTC · ref: R. Braun
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| 1. FC Köln win | 60% | 1.58 |
| Draw | 22% | 4.51 |
| Nurnberg win | 18% | 5.56 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Nurnberg −1 | 50% | 1.94 |
| 1. FC Köln −1 | 50% | 1.94 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 66% | 1.45 |
| Under | 34% | 2.86 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| -5' | 🟨 | Christian Mathenia · Nurnberg |
| 6' | ⚽ | Damion Downs · 1. FC Köln |
| 17' | ⚽ (pen) | Florian Kainz · 1. FC Köln |
| 31' | ⚽ | Denis Huseinbašić · 1. FC Köln |
| 32' | 🟨 | Timo Hübers · 1. FC Köln |
| 41' | 🟨 | Dominique Heintz · 1. FC Köln |
| 50' | 🟨 | Berkay Yılmaz · Nurnberg |
| 55' | 🟨 | Jan Thielmann · 1. FC Köln |
| 59' | ⚽ | Jens Castrop · Nurnberg |
| 84' | 🟨 | Dejan Ljubičić · 1. FC Köln |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 3 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 17 |
| 5 | On target | 4 |
| 3 | Corners | 4 |
| 13 | Fouls | 11 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | 1. FC Köln | Nurnberg |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.45 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.42 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.76 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| venue | RheinEnergieSTADION |
| coach days | 167.00 | 197.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 3.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 9.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.46 | 3.53 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.51 |
| elo | 1548.29 | 1400.63 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 27.40 | -16.29 |
| eye test v1 | -0.55 | 0.97 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.34 | -0.55 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.90 | 60.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 2.39 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.68 |
| league points | 26.00 | 19.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 18.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.20 | 85.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 61.80 | 51.80 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.79 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 1.63 | 1.19 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 0.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.80 | 14.20 |
| skill v1 | 1.11 | 0.83 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.50 | 6.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 6.20 |
| squad age | 25.50 | — |
| state index | 0.62 | -0.79 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.90 | 0.16 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |