← 2. Bundesliga 2024-25 · Sun, Dec 8, 12:30 PM UTC · ref: E. Weisbach
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Hamburger SV win | 49% | 1.99 |
| Darmstadt win | 26% | 3.70 |
| Draw | 25% | 3.90 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Darmstadt −0.5 | 51% | 1.93 |
| Hamburger SV −0.5 | 49% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 64% | 1.50 |
| Under | 36% | 2.71 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 10' | ⚽ | Ransford Yeboah Königsdörffer · Hamburger SV |
| 31' | 🟨 | Philipp Förster · Darmstadt |
| 33' | ⚽ | Aleksandar Vukotić · Darmstadt |
| 45' | 🟨 | Fraser Hornby · Darmstadt |
| 45' | 🟨 | Aleksandar Vukotić · Darmstadt |
| 45' | ⚽ | Adam Karabec · Hamburger SV |
| 63' | ⚽ | Killian Corredor · Darmstadt |
| 81' | 🟨 | Łukasz Poręba · Hamburger SV |
| 88' | 🟨 | Daniel Elfadli · Hamburger SV |
| 89' | 🟨 | Luca Marseiler · Darmstadt |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 16 | Shots | 19 |
| 7 | On target | 6 |
| 2 | Corners | 8 |
| 11 | Fouls | 8 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Hamburger SV | Darmstadt |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.60 |
| venue | Volksparkstadion |
| coach days | 37.00 | 98.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 3.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.56 | 2.11 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.59 |
| elo | 1553.88 | 1473.87 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -47.32 | 46.09 |
| eye test v1 | 0.85 | 0.60 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.07 | -0.65 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.20 | 55.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 1.90 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.30 | 1.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.73 |
| league points | 23.00 | 20.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 12.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 87.00 | 87.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.60 | 61.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.71 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 1.53 | 1.33 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.60 | 15.00 |
| skill v1 | 1.11 | 1.63 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.30 | 5.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.67 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 5.20 |
| state index | -0.22 | 0.60 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.11 | 0.97 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.00 |