← 2. Bundesliga 2024-25 · Fri, Dec 6, 05:30 PM UTC · ref: R. Kampka
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| SC Paderborn 07 win | 55% | 1.76 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.02 |
| FC Schalke 04 win | 21% | 4.57 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| FC Schalke 04 −0.75 | 51% | 1.92 |
| SC Paderborn 07 −0.75 | 49% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 62% | 1.56 |
| Under | 38% | 2.55 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| -5' | 🟨 | Ron-Thorben Hoffmann · FC Schalke 04 |
| 11' | ⚽ | Koen Kostons · SC Paderborn 07 |
| 23' | ⚽ | Moussa Sylla · FC Schalke 04 |
| 25' | 🟨 | Janik Bachmann · FC Schalke 04 |
| 43' | ⚽ | Kenan Karaman · FC Schalke 04 |
| 52' | ⚽ | Felix Götze · SC Paderborn 07 |
| 58' | 🟨 | Amin Younes · FC Schalke 04 |
| 69' | ⚽ | Kenan Karaman · FC Schalke 04 |
| 76' | 🟨 | Sebastian Klaas · SC Paderborn 07 |
| 88' | ⚽ | Janik Bachmann · FC Schalke 04 |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 5 | Shots | 25 |
| 4 | On target | 10 |
| 2 | Corners | 9 |
| 10 | Fouls | 11 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SC Paderborn 07 | FC Schalke 04 |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.26 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.77 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.20 |
| venue | Home Deluxe Arena |
| 2.80 |
| coach days | 1254.00 | 66.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 2.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.01 | 1.76 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.47 |
| elo | 1560.11 | 1409.60 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 37.13 | -14.56 |
| eye test v1 | -0.20 | -0.11 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.12 | 0.10 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.70 | 62.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.20 | 1.26 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.40 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.64 |
| league points | 30.00 | 13.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.40 | 83.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.00 | 56.00 |
| rest days | 6.23 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.32 |
| season ppg | 2.00 | 0.93 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -1.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.80 | 13.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.55 | 0.92 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.00 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.80 |
| squad age | — | 26.69 |
| state index | 0.59 | -0.54 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.43 | 0.56 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.00 |