← 2. Bundesliga 2024-25 · Sun, Dec 1, 12:30 PM UTC · ref: L. Erbst
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Nurnberg win | 42% | 2.31 |
| Fortuna Dusseldorf win | 30% | 3.24 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.43 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Fortuna Dusseldorf −0.25 | 51% | 1.91 |
| Nurnberg −0.25 | 49% | 1.99 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 52% | 1.85 |
| Under | 48% | 2.04 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 15' | ⚽ | Finn Jeltsch · Nurnberg |
| 52' | 🟨 | Jamil Siebert · Fortuna Dusseldorf |
| 57' | 🟨 | Tim Christopher Oberdorf · Fortuna Dusseldorf |
| 59' | 🟨 | Dawid Kownacki · Fortuna Dusseldorf |
| 64' | 🟨 | Marcel Sobottka · Fortuna Dusseldorf |
| 66' | 🟨 | Oliver Villadsen · Nurnberg |
| 67' | ⚽ (pen) | Ísak Bergmann Jóhannesson · Fortuna Dusseldorf |
| 79' | 🟨 | Giovanni Haag · Fortuna Dusseldorf |
| 84' | ⚽ | Stefanos Tzimas · Nurnberg |
| 90' | 🟨 | Caspar Jander · Nurnberg |
| 90' |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 15 |
| 5 | On target | 6 |
| 12 | Corners | 5 |
| 8 | Fouls | 11 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Nurnberg | Fortuna Dusseldorf |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.47 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.44 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.75 | 0.73 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 |
| venue | Max-Morlock-Stadion |
| ⚽ (og) |
| Julian Justvan · Fortuna Dusseldorf |
| 1.60 |
| coach days | 183.00 | 1034.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 8.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.25 | 4.16 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.61 |
| elo | 1410.40 | 1543.37 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 35.85 | -73.61 |
| eye test v1 | 1.59 | 0.23 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.18 | -0.34 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.20 | 58.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 2.54 | 1.25 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | 0.75 |
| league points | 18.00 | 21.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.00 | 84.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.60 | 58.00 |
| rest days | 8.79 | 8.02 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.15 |
| season ppg | 1.38 | 1.50 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 5.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.20 | 14.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.71 | 1.14 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.50 | 4.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.67 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 7.80 | 4.40 |
| state index | 0.23 | -0.53 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.04 | 0.55 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.40 |