← 2. Bundesliga 2024-25 · Sun, Dec 1, 12:30 PM UTC · ref: S. Stegemann
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Karlsruhe win | 41% | 2.34 |
| Hamburger SV win | 34% | 2.92 |
| Draw | 25% | 3.80 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Hamburger SV −0.25 | 53% | 1.85 |
| Karlsruhe −0.25 | 47% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 65% | 1.47 |
| Under | 35% | 2.81 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 23' | ⚽ | Jean-Luc Dompé · Hamburger SV |
| 36' | ⚽ | Fabian Schleusener · Karlsruhe |
| 55' | 🟨 | Dženis Burnić · Karlsruhe |
| 55' | ⚽ | Jean-Luc Dompé · Hamburger SV |
| 60' | 🟨 | Ransford Yeboah Königsdörffer · Hamburger SV |
| 61' | 🟨 | Nicolai Rapp · Karlsruhe |
| 68' | 🟨 | Budu Zivzivadze · Karlsruhe |
| 72' | 🟨 | Daniel Elfadli · Hamburger SV |
| 85' | 🟨 | Jean-Luc Dompé · Hamburger SV |
| 87' | ⚽ | Davie Selke · Hamburger SV |
| 90' | 🟨 |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 18 | Shots | 19 |
| 4 | On target | 8 |
| 7 | Corners | 7 |
| 8 | Fouls | 8 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Karlsruhe | Hamburger SV |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.72 | 0.73 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 1.00 |
| venue | BBBank Wildpark |
| 90' | 🟨 | Davie Selke · Hamburger SV |
| coach days | 1765.00 | 30.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | -2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 6.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.58 | 2.47 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1544.00 | 1535.98 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -16.96 | -48.95 |
| eye test v1 | -0.56 | 0.66 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.09 | -0.28 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.60 | 58.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.05 | 1.16 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | 0.68 |
| league points | 26.00 | 20.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 12.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.80 | 85.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.40 | 51.00 |
| rest days | 8.02 | 7.71 |
| scorer concentration | 0.35 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 1.86 | 1.43 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.00 | 15.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.40 | 0.82 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 6.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 5.20 |
| state index | -0.03 | -0.69 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.21 | -0.06 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.34 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.31 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |