⚽ Tomulator
Overview
◈Dashboard📅Today's games◎State of play
Money
💷Bets & strategies
Explore
⊞Leagues & seasons📐Metrics▤Data sources
Engine room
🎲Simulations🧪Lab≣Catalog?How this works

Magdeburg 1–3 Hertha

← 2. Bundesliga 2024-25 · Fri, Nov 29, 05:30 PM UTC · ref: R. Hempel

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Magdeburg win37%2.60
Hertha win37%2.64
Draw25%3.75

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Magdeburg +050%1.93
Hertha +050%1.95

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over61%1.57
Under39%2.52

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

21'🟨Jean Hugonet · Magdeburg
23'🟨Tobias Müller · Magdeburg
37'🟨Jonjoe Kenny · Hertha
48'⚽Mo El Hankouri · Magdeburg
55'⚽Derry Scherhant · Hertha
56'🟨Deyovaisio Zeefuik · Hertha
63'🟨Florian Niederlechner · Hertha
65'⚽Florian Niederlechner · Hertha
80'🟨Connor Krempicki · Magdeburg
86'⚽Jan Luca Schuler · Hertha

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
12Shots12
2On target7
5Corners1
10Fouls10
3Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricMagdeburgHertha
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.340.46
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.400.40
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.320.48
blown lead rate (last 20)—0.00
box share (last 5)0.530.66
cards avg (last 5)3.603.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueAvnet Arena
coach days1397.00181.00
comeback rate (last 20)—0.15
congestion 21d2.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.090.14
corner diff avg (last 5)2.001.40
corners against avg (last 5)5.204.20
corners for avg (last 5)7.205.60
corners volatility (last 10)4.161.99
defensive leak (last 5)0.110.15
dominance (last 5)0.520.53
elo1444.721459.82
elo momentum (last 5)-16.605.30
eye test v10.151.09
eye trend v10.23-0.49
first sub minute (last 10)50.1047.80
form points (last 5)5.007.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.800.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.601.60
goals for avg (last 5)0.801.80
goals volatility (last 10)1.171.08
h2 goals (last 10)0.801.20
ht lead rate (last 20)—0.10
keeper form v10.710.58
league points22.0018.00
league rank5.0012.00
matches since blank1.002.00
matches since clean sheet0.008.00
matches since win0.003.00
pass acc avg (last 5)79.6084.80
possession avg (last 5)57.4052.80
rest days5.216.23
scorer concentration0.200.22
season ppg1.571.29
shot diff avg (last 5)1.201.20
shots for avg (last 5)14.0012.40
skill v10.680.86
sot against avg (last 5)4.003.00
sot for avg (last 10)4.506.60
sot for avg (last 3)5.005.67
sot for avg (last 5)4.406.40
squad age—25.08
state index-0.43-0.07
sterile dominance v10.430.35
threat rate (last 10)0.230.28
threat rate (last 3)0.250.27
threat rate (last 5)0.250.26
venue ppg (last 5)0.802.00