← 2. Bundesliga 2024-25 · Sat, Nov 23, 07:30 PM UTC · ref: W. Haslberger
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Hamburger SV win | 56% | 61% | 1.73 | value: +6% |
| Draw | 23% | 19% | 4.13 | fair |
| FC Schalke 04 win | 21% | 19% | 4.72 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Hamburger SV −0.75 | 50% | 1.99 |
| FC Schalke 04 −0.75 | 50% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Over | 63% | 1.55 |
| Under | 37% | 2.70 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 19 | Shots | 7 |
| 6 | On target | 2 |
| 2 | Corners | 4 |
| 8 | Fouls | 11 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand