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Greuther Furth 2–3 Karlsruhe

← 2. Bundesliga 2024-25 · Sat, Nov 23, 12:00 PM UTC · ref: L. Benen

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Karlsruhe win43%2.25
Greuther Furth win32%3.10
Draw25%3.75

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Greuther Furth +0.2551%1.93
Karlsruhe +0.2549%1.96

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over63%1.53
Under37%2.62

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

20'⚽Branimir Hrgota · Greuther Furth
43'🟨Dennis Srbeny · Greuther Furth
46'⚽Budu Zivzivadze · Karlsruhe
73'⚽Bambasé Conté · Karlsruhe
79'⚽Fabian Schleusener · Karlsruhe
82'🟨Leon Jensen · Karlsruhe
83'⚽Sacha Banse · Greuther Furth
85'🟨Fabian Schleusener · Karlsruhe
90'🟨Damian Michalski · Greuther Furth

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
13Shots14
5On target3
7Corners5
10Fouls11
2Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricGreuther FurthKarlsruhe
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.250.34
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.340.25
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.320.27
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.20
box share (last 5)0.550.72
cards avg (last 5)2.203.20
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueSportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer
coach days
22.00
1757.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.10
congestion 21d2.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.080.11
corner diff avg (last 5)-1.601.80
corners against avg (last 5)5.405.20
corners for avg (last 5)3.807.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.762.55
defensive leak (last 5)0.180.13
dominance (last 5)0.420.48
elo1412.101535.81
elo momentum (last 5)-40.29-30.91
eye test v10.07-0.38
eye trend v10.39-0.36
first sub minute (last 10)50.0060.50
form points (last 5)4.005.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-1.60-0.40
goals against avg (last 5)3.001.80
goals for avg (last 5)1.401.40
goals volatility (last 10)1.621.05
h2 goals (last 10)0.700.90
h2h win rate (last 5)0.400.60
ht lead rate (last 20)0.200.35
keeper form v10.660.67
league points14.0023.00
league rank14.002.00
matches since blank0.0011.00
matches since clean sheet7.003.00
matches since win2.003.00
pass acc avg (last 5)80.8080.80
possession avg (last 5)41.4049.80
rest days14.0012.98
scorer concentration0.270.35
season ppg1.081.77
shot diff avg (last 5)-4.00-1.00
shots for avg (last 5)14.0012.80
skill v1-0.240.30
sot against avg (last 5)5.606.20
sot for avg (last 10)3.504.10
sot for avg (last 3)4.332.67
sot for avg (last 5)4.003.20
state index-1.09-0.30
sterile dominance v1-0.820.09
threat rate (last 10)0.300.26
threat rate (last 3)0.320.24
threat rate (last 5)0.310.25
venue ppg (last 5)0.401.60