← 2. Bundesliga 2024-25 · Fri, Nov 22, 05:30 PM UTC · ref: S. Jablonski
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SC Paderborn 07 win | 49% | 55% | 2.00 | value: +10% |
| Nurnberg win | 26% | 22% | 3.65 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 23% | 3.86 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Nurnberg −0.5 | 51% | 1.89 |
| SC Paderborn 07 −0.5 | 49% | 2.01 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 60% | 1.62 |
| Under | 40% | 2.41 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 6' | ⚽ | Adriano Grimaldi · SC Paderborn 07 |
| 8' | ⚽ | Danilo Soares · Nurnberg |
| 21' | 🟨 | Felix Götze · SC Paderborn 07 |
| 36' | 🟨 | Danilo Soares · Nurnberg |
| 51' | ⚽ | Stefanos Tzimas · Nurnberg |
| 55' | ⚽ (pen) | Raphael Obermair · SC Paderborn 07 |
| 72' | 🟨 | Santiago Castaneda · SC Paderborn 07 |
| 78' | 🟥 | Adriano Grimaldi · SC Paderborn 07 |
| 78' | 🟨 | Finn Jeltsch · Nurnberg |
| 86' | 🟨 | Berkay Yılmaz · Nurnberg |
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 11 | Shots | 12 |
| 6 | On target | 4 |
| 7 | Corners | 5 |
| 11 | Fouls | 12 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SC Paderborn 07 | Nurnberg |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.51 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.52 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.50 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.74 | 0.75 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.40 |
| venue | Home Deluxe Arena |
| 90' |
| ⚽ |
| Calvin Brackelmann · SC Paderborn 07 |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 1240.00 | 174.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.19 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 4.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 3.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 7.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.99 | 3.49 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.56 |
| elo | 1559.53 | 1467.10 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -4.21 | 48.15 |
| eye test v1 | -0.30 | 1.87 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.45 | 0.29 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.70 | 55.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 2.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 3.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.17 | 2.56 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 1.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.69 |
| league points | 21.00 | 18.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.60 | 83.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 59.00 | 52.00 |
| rest days | 12.92 | 14.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 1.75 | 1.50 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 3.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.20 | 16.20 |
| skill v1 | 1.25 | 0.66 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.30 | 6.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 9.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 8.40 |
| squad age | 24.63 | 25.02 |
| state index | 0.17 | 0.60 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.15 | -0.20 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.17 | 0.34 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.32 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.60 |