← 2. Bundesliga 2024-25 · Sat, Nov 9, 07:30 PM UTC · ref: F. Exner
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Fortuna Dusseldorf win | 43% | 2.20 |
| SC Paderborn 07 win | 29% | 3.42 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.53 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Fortuna Dusseldorf −0.25 | 51% | 1.93 |
| SC Paderborn 07 −0.25 | 49% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 53% | 1.83 |
| Under | 47% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 55' | 🟨 | Matthias Zimmermann · Fortuna Dusseldorf |
| 61' | ⚽ (og) | Valgeir Lunddal · SC Paderborn 07 |
| 82' | 🟨 | Shinta Karl Appelkamp · Fortuna Dusseldorf |
| 90' | ⚽ (og) | Felix Götze · Fortuna Dusseldorf |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 8 |
| 3 | On target | 3 |
| 5 | Corners | 4 |
| 10 | Fouls | 7 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Fortuna Dusseldorf | SC Paderborn 07 |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.79 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 |
| venue | Merkur Spiel-Arena |
| 2.80 |
| coach days | 1012.00 | 1227.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.80 | -0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 6.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.31 | 2.01 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.47 |
| elo | 1588.23 | 1517.35 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -38.60 | -5.01 |
| eye test v1 | 0.29 | 0.18 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.32 | -0.54 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.50 | 60.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.18 | 1.26 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 1.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.81 | 0.66 |
| league points | 20.00 | 20.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.00 | 82.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.80 | 58.40 |
| rest days | 8.08 | 6.29 |
| scorer concentration | 0.15 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 1.82 | 1.82 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.60 | -1.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.80 | 13.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.85 | 1.02 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.80 | 4.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.60 |
| state index | -0.18 | -0.04 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.06 | 0.83 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |