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Darmstadt 3–1 Hertha

← 2. Bundesliga 2024-25 · Sat, Nov 9, 12:00 PM UTC · ref: P. Alt

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Darmstadt win46%2.07
Hertha win30%3.34
Draw24%3.98

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Darmstadt −0.2553%1.83
Hertha −0.2547%2.08

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over66%1.45
Under34%2.86

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

20'🟨Fynn Lakenmacher · Darmstadt
21'⚽Florian Niederlechner · Hertha
23'🟨Jonjoe Kenny · Hertha
28'🟨Sergio López · Darmstadt
37'🟨Kai Klefisch · Darmstadt
44'🟨Ibrahim Maza · Hertha
45'⚽Philipp Förster · Darmstadt
50'🟨Fabian Nürnberger · Darmstadt
52'🟨Aleksandar Vukotić · Darmstadt
65'⚽Isac Lidberg · Darmstadt
81'⚽Andreas Müller · Darmstadt
87'🟨Michaël Cuisance · Hertha

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score1
13Shots12
3On target6
1Corners9
14Fouls18
5Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricDarmstadtHertha
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.450.43
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.420.54
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.430.50
blown lead rate (last 20)0.150.00
box share (last 5)0.730.66
cards avg (last 5)1.803.20
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueMerck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor
coach days69.00161.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.15
congestion 21d2.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.200.14
corner diff avg (last 5)1.800.80
corners against avg (last 5)3.004.80
corners for avg (last 5)4.805.60
corners volatility (last 10)4.061.76
defensive leak (last 5)0.150.17
dominance (last 5)0.560.54
elo1450.081474.63
elo momentum (last 5)41.25-23.32
eye test v11.250.98
eye trend v1-0.330.00
first sub minute (last 10)57.6048.20
form points (last 5)8.007.00
goal diff avg (last 5)1.400.00
goals against avg (last 5)1.601.80
goals for avg (last 5)3.001.80
goals volatility (last 10)2.101.32
h2 goals (last 10)1.101.40
ht lead rate (last 20)0.250.10
keeper form v10.620.63
league points13.0017.00
league rank14.008.00
matches since blank7.000.00
matches since clean sheet16.006.00
matches since win0.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)83.8083.00
possession avg (last 5)53.4052.20
rest days7.006.69
scorer concentration0.360.20
season ppg1.081.42
shot diff avg (last 5)2.801.80
shots for avg (last 5)15.8012.80
skill v10.810.66
sot against avg (last 5)4.403.60
sot for avg (last 10)6.405.90
sot for avg (last 3)6.336.33
sot for avg (last 5)6.806.20
squad age—25.08
state index0.35-0.16
sterile dominance v10.020.32
threat rate (last 10)0.290.26
threat rate (last 3)0.280.24
threat rate (last 5)0.300.25
venue ppg (last 5)1.202.20