← 2. Bundesliga 2024-25 · Fri, Nov 8, 05:30 PM UTC · ref: M. Jöllenbeck
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Nurnberg win | 44% | 2.21 |
| Kaiserslautern win | 30% | 3.25 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.67 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Nurnberg −0.25 | 51% | 1.92 |
| Kaiserslautern −0.25 | 49% | 1.97 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 58% | 1.65 |
| Under | 42% | 2.34 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 28' | 🟨 | Boris Tomiak · Kaiserslautern |
| 37' | 🟨 | Afeez Aremu · Kaiserslautern |
| 47' | 🟨 | Finn Jeltsch · Nurnberg |
| 86' | 🟨 | Ragnar Ache · Kaiserslautern |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 12 |
| 5 | On target | 2 |
| 12 | Corners | 1 |
| 9 | Fouls | 13 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Nurnberg | Kaiserslautern |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.54 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.58 | 0.49 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.42 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.58 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.00 |
| venue | Max-Morlock-Stadion |
| coach days | 160.00 | 130.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.02 | 3.22 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.57 |
| elo | 1416.92 | 1444.20 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 45.97 | 20.86 |
| eye test v1 | 1.70 | 0.82 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.42 | 0.09 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.20 | 63.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 2.49 | 1.43 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.50 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.67 |
| league points | 17.00 | 16.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.60 | 83.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.60 | 55.20 |
| rest days | 5.21 | 5.21 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.39 |
| season ppg | 1.55 | 1.33 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 3.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.60 | 14.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.71 | 0.85 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.50 | 5.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 10.00 | 7.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 8.20 | 5.60 |
| state index | 0.34 | -0.04 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.09 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |