← 2. Bundesliga 2024-25 · Fri, Nov 8, 05:30 PM UTC · ref: D. Siebert
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hamburger SV win | 44% | 58% | 2.19 | value: +28% |
| Braunschweig win | 29% | 19% | 3.27 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 23% | 3.70 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Hamburger SV +0.25 | 51% | 1.91 |
| Braunschweig +0.25 | 49% | 1.99 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 56% | 1.71 |
| Under | 44% | 2.22 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| -5' | 🟨 | Robert Ivanov · Braunschweig |
| 11' | 🟨 | Leon Bell Bell · Braunschweig |
| 35' | ⚽ | Rayan Philippe · Braunschweig |
| 37' | 🟨 | Robin Krausse · Braunschweig |
| 49' | ⚽ | Fabio Di Michele Sanchez · Braunschweig |
| 61' | 🟨 | Fabio Baldé · Hamburger SV |
| 65' | ⚽ | Rayan Philippe · Braunschweig |
| 73' | ⚽ | Łukasz Poręba · Hamburger SV |
| 88' | 🟨 | Davie Selke · Hamburger SV |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 18 | Shots | 24 |
| 4 | On target | 7 |
| 3 | Corners | 7 |
| 9 | Fouls | 18 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Braunschweig | Hamburger SV |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.79 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 1.20 |
| venue | Eintracht-Stadion |
| coach days | 373.00 | 7.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -4.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 8.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.21 | 2.36 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.45 |
| elo | 1410.21 | 1596.82 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 4.02 | -12.12 |
| eye test v1 | -0.01 | 0.71 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.58 | -0.20 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.00 | 60.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 1.43 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.80 | 0.67 |
| league points | 9.00 | 19.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.80 | 85.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.80 | 50.20 |
| rest days | 5.21 | 5.21 |
| scorer concentration | 0.40 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 0.82 | 1.58 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -3.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.60 | 13.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.45 | 0.79 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.40 | 5.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.40 |
| squad age | 27.62 | 26.59 |
| state index | -0.38 | -0.16 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.67 | 0.02 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |