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Kaiserslautern 2–2 Magdeburg

← 2. Bundesliga 2024-25 · Sun, Nov 3, 12:30 PM UTC · ref: F. Badstübner

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Kaiserslautern win41%2.40
Magdeburg win33%2.98
Draw27%3.60

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Magdeburg −0.2553%1.83
Kaiserslautern −0.2547%2.07

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over58%1.66
Under42%2.31

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

11'⚽Samuel Loric · Magdeburg
13'⚽Philipp Hercher · Magdeburg
30'🟨Falko Michel · Magdeburg
32'⚽ (pen)Boris Tomiak · Kaiserslautern
36'🟨Falko Michel · Magdeburg
36'🟨Marcus Mathisen · Magdeburg
36'🟥Falko Michel · Magdeburg
51'🟨Boris Tomiak · Kaiserslautern
52'🟨Martijn Kaars · Magdeburg
68'⚽Ragnar Ache · Kaiserslautern
90'🟨

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score2
22Shots7
6On target4
11Corners1
10Fouls15
2Yellow cards5
0Red cards2

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricKaiserslauternMagdeburg
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.440.35
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.460.26
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.440.26
blown lead rate (last 20)0.10—
box share (last 5)0.560.61
cards avg (last 5)2.403.40
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueFritz-Walter-Stadion
Jan Elvedi
· Kaiserslautern
90'🟨Martijn Kaars · Magdeburg
90'🟥Martijn Kaars · Magdeburg
coach days125.001371.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.00—
congestion 21d2.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.150.11
corner diff avg (last 5)-0.600.20
corners against avg (last 5)5.005.40
corners for avg (last 5)4.405.60
corners volatility (last 10)2.733.54
defensive leak (last 5)0.080.19
dominance (last 5)0.490.53
elo1446.211435.58
elo momentum (last 5)21.06-15.70
eye test v10.58-0.05
eye trend v1-0.08-0.19
first sub minute (last 10)62.6047.30
form points (last 5)7.005.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.40-0.80
goals against avg (last 5)1.002.20
goals for avg (last 5)1.401.40
goals volatility (last 10)1.431.23
h2 goals (last 10)1.201.00
ht lead rate (last 20)0.20—
keeper form v10.690.73
league points15.0017.00
league rank12.008.00
matches since blank2.000.00
matches since clean sheet1.006.00
matches since win0.003.00
pass acc avg (last 5)79.6085.00
possession avg (last 5)48.0062.60
rest days7.757.00
scorer concentration0.350.24
season ppg1.361.55
shot diff avg (last 5)-0.801.20
shots for avg (last 5)12.0014.60
skill v10.081.51
sot against avg (last 5)4.205.20
sot for avg (last 10)5.604.90
sot for avg (last 3)6.004.33
sot for avg (last 5)5.203.80
state index0.10-0.39
sterile dominance v1-0.241.10
threat rate (last 10)0.300.24
threat rate (last 3)0.310.26
threat rate (last 5)0.280.23
venue ppg (last 5)1.602.40