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Fortuna Dusseldorf 3–4 Kaiserslautern

← 2. Bundesliga 2024-25 · Sat, Oct 26, 06:30 PM UTC · ref: F. Willenborg

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Fortuna Dusseldorf win55%1.74
Draw24%4.00
Kaiserslautern win21%4.76

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Kaiserslautern −0.7550%1.93
Fortuna Dusseldorf −0.7550%1.95

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over57%1.68
Under43%2.27

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

14'⚽Daniel Hanslik · Kaiserslautern
34'🟨Julian Krahl · Kaiserslautern
35'⚽ (pen)Ísak Bergmann Jóhannesson · Fortuna Dusseldorf
49'🟨Jan Elvedi · Kaiserslautern
49'⚽Myron Van Brederode · Fortuna Dusseldorf
52'🟨Boris Tomiak · Kaiserslautern
57'⚽Daisuke Yokota · Kaiserslautern
61'⚽Ragnar Ache · Kaiserslautern
67'⚽Daniel Hanslik · Kaiserslautern
76'🟨Felix Klaus · Fortuna Dusseldorf
85'

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score1
14Shots12
7On target6
4Corners3
10Fouls8
2Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricFortuna DusseldorfKaiserslautern
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.330.43
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.260.43
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.330.39
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.10
box share (last 5)0.820.58
cards avg (last 5)2.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueMerkur Spiel-Arena
🟨
Shinta Karl Appelkamp · Fortuna Dusseldorf
90'⚽Felix Klaus · Fortuna Dusseldorf
2.20
coach days998.00117.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.00
congestion 21d2.001.00
conversion (last 5)0.150.10
corner diff avg (last 5)-0.20-1.80
corners against avg (last 5)5.406.20
corners for avg (last 5)5.204.40
corners volatility (last 10)2.782.71
defensive leak (last 5)0.060.07
dominance (last 5)0.470.48
elo1616.981430.10
elo momentum (last 5)-1.477.57
eye test v10.450.28
eye trend v1-0.28-0.35
first sub minute (last 10)61.1062.40
form points (last 5)10.005.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.600.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.200.80
goals for avg (last 5)1.801.00
goals volatility (last 10)1.061.17
h2 goals (last 10)1.000.90
h2h win rate (last 5)0.800.20
ht lead rate (last 20)0.200.20
keeper form v10.840.74
league points20.0012.00
league rank2.0013.00
matches since blank1.001.00
matches since clean sheet0.000.00
matches since win0.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)81.6078.00
possession avg (last 5)47.2049.60
rest days7.317.00
scorer concentration0.180.38
season ppg2.221.20
shot diff avg (last 5)-2.00-1.20
shots for avg (last 5)13.8012.40
skill v10.210.03
sot against avg (last 5)6.004.80
sot for avg (last 10)5.005.50
sot for avg (last 3)4.335.00
sot for avg (last 5)4.804.60
state index0.39-0.13
sterile dominance v1-0.55-0.18
threat rate (last 10)0.330.30
threat rate (last 3)0.340.25
threat rate (last 5)0.320.27
venue ppg (last 5)1.600.80