← 2. Bundesliga 2024-25 · Sat, Oct 26, 06:30 PM UTC · ref: F. Willenborg
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Fortuna Dusseldorf win | 55% | 1.74 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.00 |
| Kaiserslautern win | 21% | 4.76 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Kaiserslautern −0.75 | 50% | 1.93 |
| Fortuna Dusseldorf −0.75 | 50% | 1.95 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 57% | 1.68 |
| Under | 43% | 2.27 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 14' | ⚽ | Daniel Hanslik · Kaiserslautern |
| 34' | 🟨 | Julian Krahl · Kaiserslautern |
| 35' | ⚽ (pen) | Ísak Bergmann Jóhannesson · Fortuna Dusseldorf |
| 49' | 🟨 | Jan Elvedi · Kaiserslautern |
| 49' | ⚽ | Myron Van Brederode · Fortuna Dusseldorf |
| 52' | 🟨 | Boris Tomiak · Kaiserslautern |
| 57' | ⚽ | Daisuke Yokota · Kaiserslautern |
| 61' | ⚽ | Ragnar Ache · Kaiserslautern |
| 67' | ⚽ | Daniel Hanslik · Kaiserslautern |
| 76' | 🟨 | Felix Klaus · Fortuna Dusseldorf |
| 85' |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 14 | Shots | 12 |
| 7 | On target | 6 |
| 4 | Corners | 3 |
| 10 | Fouls | 8 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Fortuna Dusseldorf | Kaiserslautern |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.82 | 0.58 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 |
| venue | Merkur Spiel-Arena |
| 🟨 |
| Shinta Karl Appelkamp · Fortuna Dusseldorf |
| 90' | ⚽ | Felix Klaus · Fortuna Dusseldorf |
| 2.20 |
| coach days | 998.00 | 117.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 6.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.78 | 2.71 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1616.98 | 1430.10 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -1.47 | 7.57 |
| eye test v1 | 0.45 | 0.28 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.28 | -0.35 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.10 | 62.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.06 | 1.17 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.84 | 0.74 |
| league points | 20.00 | 12.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.60 | 78.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.20 | 49.60 |
| rest days | 7.31 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.18 | 0.38 |
| season ppg | 2.22 | 1.20 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | -1.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.80 | 12.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.21 | 0.03 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.00 | 5.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.60 |
| state index | 0.39 | -0.13 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.55 | -0.18 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |