← 2. Bundesliga 2024-25 · Sat, Oct 26, 11:00 AM UTC · ref: F. Heft
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Karlsruhe win | 44% | 56% | 2.21 | value: +24% |
| Hertha win | 32% | 25% | 3.08 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 19% | 3.89 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Karlsruhe −0.25 | 50% | 1.93 |
| Hertha −0.25 | 50% | 1.95 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 65% | 1.48 |
| Under | 35% | 2.76 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 5' | 🟨 | Toni Leistner · Hertha |
| 9' | ⚽ | Ibrahim Maza · Hertha |
| 37' | 🟨 | Leon Jensen · Karlsruhe |
| 45' | ⚽ | Budu Zivzivadze · Karlsruhe |
| 49' | ⚽ | Deyovaisio Zeefuik · Hertha |
| 58' | ⚽ | Florian Niederlechner · Hertha |
| 60' | 🟨 | Fabian Schleusener · Karlsruhe |
| 66' | 🟨 | Derry Scherhant · Hertha |
| 72' | 🟨 | Sebastian Jung · Karlsruhe |
| 72' | 🟨 | Márton Dárdai · Hertha |
| 76' |
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 13 | Shots | 10 |
| 4 | On target | 8 |
| 7 | Corners | 2 |
| 12 | Fouls | 13 |
| 6 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Karlsruhe | Hertha |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.45 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 2.80 |
| venue | BBBank Wildpark |
| 🟨 |
| Marcel Beifus · Karlsruhe |
| 77' | 🟨 | Jan Luca Schuler · Hertha |
| 80' | 🟨 | Robin Heußer · Karlsruhe |
| 84' | 🟨 | Andrin Hunziker · Karlsruhe |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 1729.00 | 147.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 6.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.58 | 2.59 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.18 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.61 |
| elo | 1621.95 | 1501.08 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 8.05 | -24.09 |
| eye test v1 | 0.25 | 1.35 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.00 | 50.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.16 | 1.16 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.40 | 1.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.60 |
| league points | 22.00 | 14.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 8.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.20 | 83.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.40 | 55.40 |
| rest days | 5.98 | 7.77 |
| scorer concentration | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 2.20 | 1.40 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 5.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.80 | 15.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.15 | 0.94 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.60 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 6.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 7.00 |
| squad age | — | 25.49 |
| state index | 0.63 | -0.12 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.54 | 0.17 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.60 |