← 2. Bundesliga 2024-25 · Fri, Oct 25, 04:30 PM UTC · ref: R. Braun
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Nurnberg win | 58% | 1.64 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.10 |
| Regensburg win | 18% | 5.46 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Nurnberg −0.75 | 53% | 1.83 |
| Regensburg −0.75 | 47% | 2.08 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 54% | 1.79 |
| Under | 46% | 2.10 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 10' | 🟨 | Alexander Bittroff · Regensburg |
| 17' | ⚽ | Stefanos Tzimas · Nurnberg |
| 23' | ⚽ | Mahir Emreli · Nurnberg |
| 30' | 🟨 | Jonas Bauer · Regensburg |
| 36' | ⚽ | Eric Hottmann · Regensburg |
| 42' | ⚽ (pen) | Christian Viet · Regensburg |
| 45' | ⚽ | Julian Justvan · Nurnberg |
| 49' | ⚽ | Kai Pröger · Regensburg |
| 59' | ⚽ | Julian Justvan · Nurnberg |
| 74' | ⚽ (pen) | Julian Justvan · Nurnberg |
| 80' | ⚽ |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 3 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 20 | Shots | 16 |
| 12 | On target | 7 |
| 3 | Corners | 3 |
| 13 | Fouls | 13 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Nurnberg | Regensburg |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.47 | 0.23 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.45 | 0.23 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.20 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | — |
| box share (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.70 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 3.80 |
| venue | Max-Morlock-Stadion |
| 83' | ⚽ | Jens Castrop · Nurnberg |
| 85' | 🟨 | Nico Ochojski · Regensburg |
| 90' | ⚽ (og) | Louis Breunig · Nurnberg |
| coach days | 146.00 | 24.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | — |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | -1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 6.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.15 | 2.00 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.18 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.40 |
| elo | 1400.46 | 1290.92 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 30.53 | -29.61 |
| eye test v1 | 0.79 | -1.01 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.04 | 0.17 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.50 | 61.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -2.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.43 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | — |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | — |
| keeper form v1 | 0.61 | 0.59 |
| league points | 13.00 | 4.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 7.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.00 | 73.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 54.00 | 38.40 |
| rest days | 5.21 | 6.23 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | — |
| season ppg | 1.44 | 0.44 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -4.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.40 | 10.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.68 | -1.07 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 6.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.90 | 2.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.00 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 2.20 |
| state index | 0.05 | -1.67 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.50 | -0.98 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.60 |