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1. FC Köln 1–2 SC Paderborn 07

← 2. Bundesliga 2024-25 · Fri, Oct 25, 04:30 PM UTC · ref: F. Lechner

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
1. FC Köln win63%1.51
Draw20%4.69
SC Paderborn 07 win17%6.27

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
1. FC Köln −155%1.78
SC Paderborn 07 −145%2.14

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over69%1.39
Under31%3.13

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

40'🟨Ilyas Ansah · SC Paderborn 07
61'🟨Luis Engelns · SC Paderborn 07
62'🟨Dejan Ljubičić · 1. FC Köln
66'⚽Jan Thielmann · 1. FC Köln
68'🟨Santiago Castaneda · SC Paderborn 07
69'🟨Aaron Zehnter · SC Paderborn 07
76'⚽Sven Michel · SC Paderborn 07
80'⚽Sven Michel · SC Paderborn 07

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
12Shots9
3On target4
6Corners3
6Fouls11
1Yellow cards4
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

Metric1. FC KölnSC Paderborn 07
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.370.35
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.270.35
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.360.36
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.00
box share (last 5)0.640.62
cards avg (last 5)2.602.80
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueRheinEnergieSTADION
coach days116.001212.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.05
congestion 21d2.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.110.12
corner diff avg (last 5)2.60-1.60
corners against avg (last 5)4.207.20
corners for avg (last 5)6.805.60
corners volatility (last 10)3.531.81
defensive leak (last 5)0.210.14
dominance (last 5)0.680.54
elo1533.221510.64
elo momentum (last 5)-25.22-3.32
eye test v12.120.93
eye trend v1-1.11-0.03
first sub minute (last 10)60.2060.30
form points (last 5)5.008.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.600.20
goals against avg (last 5)2.601.80
goals for avg (last 5)2.002.00
goals volatility (last 10)1.341.14
h2 goals (last 10)1.001.40
h2h win rate (last 5)0.500.50
ht lead rate (last 20)0.250.10
keeper form v10.610.75
league points13.0016.00
league rank8.006.00
matches since blank12.000.00
matches since clean sheet1.001.00
matches since win1.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)84.2082.60
possession avg (last 5)52.8058.20
rest days7.005.92
scorer concentration0.190.33
season ppg1.301.78
shot diff avg (last 5)11.202.60
shots for avg (last 5)21.8016.20
skill v10.811.01
sot against avg (last 5)4.206.40
sot for avg (last 10)8.105.20
sot for avg (last 3)5.005.67
sot for avg (last 5)8.406.20
squad age25.50—
state index-0.12-0.02
sterile dominance v1-1.050.34
threat rate (last 10)0.410.28
threat rate (last 3)0.340.26
threat rate (last 5)0.440.29
venue ppg (last 5)1.401.20