← 2. Bundesliga 2024-25 · Sun, Oct 20, 11:30 AM UTC · ref: S. Jablonski
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hamburger SV win | 57% | 59% | 1.70 | fair |
| Draw | 22% | 23% | 4.33 | fair |
| Magdeburg win | 21% | 18% | 4.69 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Hamburger SV −0.75 | 52% | 1.87 |
| Magdeburg −0.75 | 48% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 70% | 1.38 |
| Under | 30% | 3.18 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 5' | ⚽ | Ransford Yeboah Königsdörffer · Hamburger SV |
| 15' | 🟨 | Mo El Hankouri · Magdeburg |
| 42' | ⚽ | Noah Katterbach · Hamburger SV |
| 45' | ⚽ | Davie Selke · Hamburger SV |
| 57' | 🟥 | Sebastian Schonlau · Hamburger SV |
| 60' | 🟨 | Livan Burcu · Magdeburg |
| 63' | ⚽ (pen) | Martijn Kaars · Magdeburg |
| 66' | 🟨 | Ludovit Reis · Hamburger SV |
| 67' | 🟨 | Miro Muheim · Hamburger SV |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 3 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 14 |
| 5 | On target | 3 |
| 4 | Corners | 7 |
| 7 | Fouls | 10 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Hamburger SV | Magdeburg |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.40 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.79 | 0.71 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 3.20 |
| venue | Volksparkstadion |
| coach days | 262.00 | 1357.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.19 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 6.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.75 | 3.98 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1632.52 | 1495.97 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 32.39 | 48.37 |
| eye test v1 | 1.56 | 0.26 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.37 | -0.39 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.20 | 50.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 2.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.70 | 1.20 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.75 | 0.79 |
| league points | 15.00 | 17.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 87.20 | 85.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 60.40 | 58.20 |
| rest days | 14.00 | 14.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 1.88 | 1.89 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.00 | -3.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.60 | 12.80 |
| skill v1 | 1.57 | 1.27 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 6.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.30 | 5.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 7.33 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 4.60 |
| squad age | 27.34 | 27.08 |
| state index | 1.11 | 0.63 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.70 | 1.01 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.40 |