← 2. Bundesliga 2024-25 · Sat, Oct 19, 06:30 PM UTC · ref: R. Hempel
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| SC Paderborn 07 win | 43% | 2.27 |
| Kaiserslautern win | 31% | 3.13 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.75 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Kaiserslautern +0.25 | 51% | 1.92 |
| SC Paderborn 07 +0.25 | 49% | 1.97 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 60% | 1.60 |
| Under | 40% | 2.46 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 25' | 🟨 | Afeez Aremu · Kaiserslautern |
| 30' | ⚽ | Ragnar Ache · Kaiserslautern |
| 36' | 🟨 | Filip Kaloč · Kaiserslautern |
| 37' | 🟨 | Laurin Curda · SC Paderborn 07 |
| 76' | 🟨 | Luca Herrmann · SC Paderborn 07 |
| 87' | ⚽ | Luca Sirch · Kaiserslautern |
| 90' | 🟨 | Tobias Raschl · Kaiserslautern |
| 90' | 🟨 | Laurin Curda · SC Paderborn 07 |
| 90' | 🟥 | Laurin Curda · SC Paderborn 07 |
| 90' | ⚽ | Marlon Ritter · Kaiserslautern |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 13 |
| 8 | On target | 2 |
| 5 | Corners | 5 |
| 12 | Fouls | 15 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Kaiserslautern | SC Paderborn 07 |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.56 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 |
| venue | Fritz-Walter-Stadion |
| 2.60 |
| coach days | 110.00 | 1206.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.20 | -1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 7.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.81 | 1.89 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.56 |
| elo | 1409.52 | 1531.22 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -22.65 | 14.15 |
| eye test v1 | 0.50 | 0.88 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.41 | 0.23 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.80 | 60.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.58 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 1.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.79 |
| league points | 9.00 | 16.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.60 | 82.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.80 | 56.60 |
| rest days | 14.31 | 15.08 |
| scorer concentration | 0.40 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 4.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.60 | 17.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.08 | 0.87 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.90 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 6.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 6.00 |
| state index | -0.70 | 0.46 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.77 | 0.12 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |