← 2. Bundesliga 2024-25 · Sat, Oct 19, 11:00 AM UTC · ref: L. Benen
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Fortuna Dusseldorf win | 54% | 1.78 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.00 |
| Regensburg win | 21% | 4.64 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Regensburg +0.75 | 51% | 1.88 |
| Fortuna Dusseldorf +0.75 | 49% | 2.01 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 56% | 1.72 |
| Under | 44% | 2.21 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 41' | 🟨 | Christian Viet · Regensburg |
| 43' | 🟨 | Ísak Bergmann Jóhannesson · Fortuna Dusseldorf |
| 44' | ⚽ | Tim Christopher Oberdorf · Fortuna Dusseldorf |
| 72' | 🟨 | Leopold Wurm · Regensburg |
| 81' | ⚽ | Dawid Kownacki · Fortuna Dusseldorf |
| 83' | 🟨 | Leopold Wurm · Regensburg |
| 83' | 🟥 | Leopold Wurm · Regensburg |
| 87' | 🟨 | Florian Ballas · Regensburg |
| 88' | 🟥 | Bryan Hein · Regensburg |
| 89' | ⚽ (pen) | Vincent Vermeij · Fortuna Dusseldorf |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 10 | Shots | 15 |
| 5 | On target | 4 |
| 4 | Corners | 8 |
| 19 | Fouls | 11 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 2 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Regensburg | Fortuna Dusseldorf |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.13 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | — | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.79 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.20 |
| venue | Jahnstadion Regensburg |
| 2.40 |
| coach days | 18.00 | 991.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | — | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.07 | 3.56 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.47 |
| elo | 1297.54 | 1610.36 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -37.93 | -2.53 |
| eye test v1 | -0.90 | 0.65 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.07 | -0.24 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.20 | 55.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -3.00 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.85 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | — | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | — | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.62 | 0.81 |
| league points | 4.00 | 17.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 6.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.20 | 82.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 40.00 | 46.40 |
| rest days | 14.77 | 12.98 |
| scorer concentration | — | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 0.50 | 2.13 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.20 | -1.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.60 | 15.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.93 | 0.27 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.50 | 5.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 1.67 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 5.00 |
| state index | -1.63 | 0.46 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.02 | -0.80 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.34 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.35 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.60 |