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Hertha 3–1 Braunschweig

← 2. Bundesliga 2024-25 · Fri, Oct 18, 04:30 PM UTC · ref: R. Braun

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Hertha win51%1.91
Braunschweig win25%3.93
Draw24%3.90

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Hertha −0.551%1.91
Braunschweig −0.549%1.99

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over62%1.56
Under38%2.54

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

22'🟨Márton Dárdai · Hertha
30'🟨Kevin Sessa · Hertha
38'⚽Levente Szabó · Braunschweig
45'🟨Kevin Ehlers · Braunschweig
50'🟥Lennart Grill · Braunschweig
54'⚽ (pen)Michaël Cuisance · Hertha
60'🟨Smail Prevljak · Hertha
72'⚽ (pen)Ibrahim Maza · Hertha
78'🟨Ibrahim Maza · Hertha
83'⚽Florian Niederlechner · Hertha

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1
16Shots5
7On target2
7Corners5
9Fouls7
4Yellow cards1
0Red cards1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricHerthaBraunschweig
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.360.38
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.470.41
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.440.30
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.05
box share (last 5)0.660.65
cards avg (last 5)2.804.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueOlympiastadion Berlin
coach days139.00352.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.100.00
congestion 21d3.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.110.10
corner diff avg (last 5)0.602.00
corners against avg (last 5)5.404.00
corners for avg (last 5)6.006.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.623.20
defensive leak (last 5)0.160.08
dominance (last 5)0.540.49
elo1454.521370.30
elo momentum (last 5)-42.5427.24
eye test v11.260.41
eye trend v10.550.46
first sub minute (last 10)51.6057.70
form points (last 5)4.007.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-1.200.20
goals against avg (last 5)2.401.20
goals for avg (last 5)1.201.40
goals volatility (last 10)1.080.67
h2 goals (last 10)1.300.60
ht lead rate (last 20)0.150.25
keeper form v10.600.50
league points11.007.00
league rank10.0016.00
matches since blank4.005.00
matches since clean sheet3.000.00
matches since win3.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)83.0072.80
possession avg (last 5)55.4043.60
rest days12.9212.21
scorer concentration0.270.38
season ppg1.220.88
shot diff avg (last 5)1.800.40
shots for avg (last 5)15.2014.40
skill v10.87-0.83
sot against avg (last 5)6.002.80
sot for avg (last 10)5.305.40
sot for avg (last 3)7.677.67
sot for avg (last 5)6.805.20
squad age25.08—
state index-0.84-0.27
sterile dominance v10.14-1.37
threat rate (last 10)0.280.32
threat rate (last 3)0.340.44
threat rate (last 5)0.300.36
venue ppg (last 5)0.600.20